/Issued 5:37 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 14, 2018/
18z NAM-Nest model
Goes-16 visible satellite loop for Tuesday, August 14, 2018 (Loop time: 10:52 AM to 4:37 PM) Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed this afternoon near a cold front which was over east central Minnesota into north central Wisconsin. Heavy downpours and lightning have been the main the main threats from these storms today, but there was a report of a Funnel Cloud in Downtown Cambridge, Minnesota around 2:30 PM today.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 8.14.2018
Note: Normal highs for the Northland in mid August are mainly in the mid 70s, normal lows are in the low to mid 50s.
12z GEFS model 8.14.2018
Quite a bit of model disagreement showing up as we head into the final week of August, shown below is the GEFS temperature anomaly forecast per Tuesday’s 12z run — Below average temps covering the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 8.14.2018
Meanwhile Tuesday’s 12z EPS run shows above average temps for late month across the northern Plains and upper Midwest.
Looking at the respective 500mb patterns shows more of a zonal or west to east flow per EPS model while the GEFS has a slightly more amplified upper level pattern with upper level winds more out of the NW leading to below average temps late this month. Stay tuned!
Climate Data for August 13, 2018
Record warm low temperature for August 13 with a low on Monday of 69 degrees. The previous record warm low for August 13 was 68 degrees set in 2015.
3rd warmest high on record for August 13 with a high on Monday of 89 degrees. The record high for August 13 is 91 degrees set in 1970.
2nd warmest high on record for August 13 with a high on Monday of 92 degrees. The record high for August 13 is 93 degrees set in 1965.
2nd warmest low on record for August 13 with a low on Monday of 68 degrees, this ties with 1978 for 2nd warmest low on record for August 13. Record warmest low for August 13 is 72 degrees set in 1969.
3rd warmest high on record for August 13 with a high on Monday of 90 degrees, this ties with 2015 and 1965 for 3rd warmest high on record for August 13. The record high for August 13 is 93 degrees set in 1947.
3rd warmest low on record for August 13 with a low on Monday of 64 degrees, this ties with 1988 for 3rd warmest low on record for August 13. Record warmest low for August 13 is 68 degrees set in 1978.
4th warmest high on record for August 13 with a high on Monday of 87 degrees. The record high for August 13 is 91 degrees set in 1970.
International Falls, Minnesota
5th warmest low on record for August 13 with a low on Monday of 61 degrees, this ties with 2015, 1983, 1981, 1970 and 1919 for 5th warmest low on record for August 13. Record warm low for August 13 is 66 degrees set in 1978.
Note: So far this year there’s been 24 days with thunder at Duluth, Minnesota. The annual average is roughly 35 thunderstorm days.
***Breaking it down by month***
April 2018: 1 day with thunder
May 2018: 5 days with thunder
June 2018: 9 days with thunder
July 2018: 7 days with thunder
August 2018: 2 days with thunder through the 14th
A few photos that I’ve taken over the last few days.
August 8, 2018: Thunderstorms in northern Wisconsin, viewed from Skyline Drive in Duluth, Minnesota, looking east into Wisconsin just before sunset.
August 8, 2018. Duluth, Minnesota. Thompson Hill area.
August 8, 2018. Just after sunset on the St. Louis River at Boy Scout Landing, Gary New Duluth, Minnesota.
August 11, 2018. Smoky sunset due to wildfires out west. Near Duluth, Minnesota.
August 13, 2018. Smoky sunset due to wildfires out west. Near Duluth, Minnesota.
Cold front has cleared the Northland this afternoon — At 5 PM today the front extended from central Wisconsin to the Minnesota/Iowa border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms affected some parts of the Northland today, mainly southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. Otherwise skies were partly to mostly cloudy today with lower dew points compared to the last few days, dew points today were in the 50s to lower 60s in northeast Minnesota, but it was still humid in northwest Wisconsin with late afternoon dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s! Highs today were also cooler compared to the last few days with highs in the 70s today with a few locations in northwest Wisconsin near 80 degrees or into the lower 80s. Certainly not a strong cold front but strong enough to drop our temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees compared to the last few days.
Not a whole lot going on in our area through Saturday. Lingering showers and thunderstorms in parts of northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon will come to an end tonight, otherwise dry tonight with quite a range in temperatures with lows in the 40s in northern Minnesota, maybe even a few 30s in far northern areas, much warmer farther south/east with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s near Lake Superior, northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.
Highs Wednesday will range from the 60s near Lake Superior due to a stronger northeast wind while farther inland highs get into the 70s.
Thursday, Friday and Saturday will feature daytime highs mainly in the 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, however, a lake breeze is possible on Friday which would keep it cooler near Lake Superior.
Note: Our only real weather concern Thursday, Friday and Saturday could be the development of some fog during the nighttime hours which could linger into the morning hours.
Our next chance for some rain comes Sunday-Monday (August 19-20) Doesn’t look like anything too significant per today’s model runs, but things could change during the next few days.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 15
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:06 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:19 PM CDT