/Issued 7:16 PM CDT, Monday, August 13, 2018/
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Monday, August 13, 2018 (Loop time: 12:57 PM to 6:52 PM) Still seeing quite a bit of wildfire smoke across the Northland today per visible satellite imagery and by the haziness in the sky, smoke shows up as milky white on satellite imagery. Clouds approaching from northwest Minnesota is on the leading edge of cooler/drier air.
22z HRRR model — Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 1 AM Tuesday to 11 AM Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two is possible late tonight into Tuesday morning in parts of northeast Minnesota and eventually into northwest Wisconsin. I don’t think this is going to be a real big deal though.
A drier than average pattern remains in place for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through late this month, that doesn’t mean we won’t get any rain, but odds favor below average rainfall through most of the rest of this month per 12z European Ensemble model.
Temperature Departure map for the period July 30, 2018 to August 12, 2018.
Generally near to slightly above or slightly below average temperatures in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin since late July. See list below.
Temperature Departures from July 30 through August 12, 2018.
Duluth, Minn: +3.4 degrees above average
Superior, WI: +1.4 degrees above average
Grand Marais, Minn: -3.6 degrees below average
Two Harbors, Minn: -1.7 degrees below average
International Falls, Minn: -0.5 degrees below average
Brainerd, Minn: Average
Precipitation Departure map for the period July 30, 2018 to August 12, 2018.
Most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin has had below average rainfall since late July.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
August 5 through 11, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
8/5: 87 F/+11 degrees above normal
8/6: 76 F/Normal
8/7: 77 F/+1 degree above normal
8/8: 86 F/+10 degrees above normal
8/9: 86 F/+10 degrees above normal
8/10: 86 F/+10 degrees above normal
8/11: 91 F/+16 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
8/5: 66 F/+10 degrees above normal
8/6: 58 F/+2 degrees above normal
8/7: 54 F/-2 degrees below normal
8/8: 62 F/+6 degrees above normal
8/9: 63 F/+8 degrees above normal
8/10: 59 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/11: 66 F/+11 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of August 5: 72.6 degrees (+7.0 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: Trace
Normal: 0.82 inches
Departure: -0.82 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of August 5, 2018
Temperature: 71.4 degrees
Departure: +2.3 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.48 inches
Departure: -0.41 inches below normal
Note: A few weeks left of meteorological summer 2018, or the period from June 1 to August 31. Average temperature so far this summer (through August 12) at Duluth, Minnesota, 66.1 degrees which is 2.6 degrees warmer than average. 9.55 inches of rain so far this summer (through August 13) this is -0.04 inches below average.
Climate Data for August 12, 2018
2nd warmest high on record for August 12 with a high on Sunday of 88 degrees. The record high for August 12 is 89 degrees set in 1965.
5th warmest low on record for August 12 with a low on Sunday of 62 degrees. The record warm low for August 12 is 66 degrees set in 1978 and tied in 2000.
3rd warmest high on record for August 12 with a high on Sunday of 90 degrees. The record high for August 12 is 93 degrees set in 1975.
4th warmest high on record for August 12 with a high on Sunday of 86 degrees. This ties with 1940 and 1965 for 4th warmest high on record for August 12. The record high for August 12 is 90 degrees set in 1991.
5th warmest high on record for August 12 with a high on Sunday of 87 degrees, this ties with 1960 and 1970 for 5th warmest high on record for August 12. The record high for August 12 is 92 degrees set in 1965.
Climate Data for August 11, 2018
2nd warmest high on record for August 11 with a high on Saturday of 91 degrees. The record high for August 11 is 94 degrees set in 1947.
2nd warmest low on record for August 11 with a low on Saturday of 66 degrees. The record warm low for August 11 is 75 degrees set in 1947.
4th warmest high on record for August 11 with a high on Saturday of 86 degrees, this ties with 1970 for 4th warmest high on record for August 11. The record high for August 11 is 94 degrees set in 1947.
International Falls, Minnesota
5th warmest high on record for August 11 with a high on Saturday of 87 degrees, this ties with 1970 for 5th warmest high on record for August 11. The record high for August 11 is 92 degrees set in 1965.
Today, August 13 marks the 6th consecutive day with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota (August 8-13) This is the longest streak of 80 degree days we’ve had so far this summer. Previous longest was 5 days from July 6-10.
42 days so far this year with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at Duluth, Minnesota. The annual average is 26 days. Note: Last year, only 20 days at or above 80 F.
Top 5 list for number of days with a high temperature of 80 F or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota
1: 53 days set in 1988.
2: 48 days set in 2012.
3: 47 days set in 1894
4: 45 days set in 1970
5: 44 days set in 1930 and tied again in 1961
2018 (through August 13) is currently tied with 1955 and 1921 for 7th place for most number of 80 degree days. I think there is a good chance will crack into the top 5, however, per long range model trends.
One last real warm day at least for now! An upper level ridge is in the process of breaking down but remained over the upper Midwest today with more very warm temperatures. 925mb temperatures were up to around +26C with 850mb temps of +18 to +20C. Highs today were generally in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and it was humid as well with dew points generally in the mid 60s except near Lake Superior where dew points maxed out at 70 steamy degrees! Afternoon heat index temperatures climbed into the low to mid 90s today in parts of the Northland, warmest values near Lake Superior!
Cold front was analyzed over northwestern Minnesota at 6 PM today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring behind the front across parts of North Dakota late this afternoon. Temperatures behind this cold front were down into the 60s in northern North Dakota late this afternoon, and this airmass will be moving into the Northland for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The aforementioned cold front will continue on its eastward journey tonight and by daybreak should extend from far northwest Wisconsin down to southwest Minnesota, this front by late Tuesday afternoon is forecast to extend from northeast Wisconsin to northern Iowa — Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the Northland tonight and Tuesday with isolated to scattered showers possible with maybe an isolated thunderstorm as well. Note: Consider yourself lucky if you happen to get a shower late tonight or Tuesday because I think most of us won’t get any rain at all.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s to upper 60s, coolest temps in northern Minnesota. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to the 70s except over southern parts of northwest Wisconsin where highs will reach the lower 80s.
Gusty northeast wind develops near Lake Superior for Tuesday night into Wednesday, this should keep daytime highs on Wednesday in the 60s to around 70 degrees near Lake Superior while farther inland highs will get into the 70s on Wednesday.
Warmer temperatures are expected to return to the Northland for Thursday through Sunday, highs Thursday in the 70s and 80s, with highs Friday through Sunday mainly in the 80s the way it looks now.
Note: Rain chances are slim across our area after tonight’s cold frontal passage. It looks mainly dry around here from Wednesday through Saturday.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 14
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:05 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 8:21 PM CDT