/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Friday, August 17, 2018/
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
22z (5 PM) HRRR model run
Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
For the most part the Northland has been in a dry weather pattern since about mid July with a few exceptions here and there.
Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
Source: http://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 visible satellite loop for Friday, August 17, 2018.
Our source region for wildfire smoke is coming out of western Canada where there are currently over 560 wildfires burning in British Columbia per tweet from @BCGovFireInfo
Source: https://www.pca.state.mn.us
Air Quality Alert covers most of Minnesota through Noon Sunday (Orange shaded area on map) More information at this link https://www.pca.state.mn.us/featured/air-quality-alert-friday-august-17-sunday-august-19
Burn restrictions have been issued by the MNDNR for northern Minnesota — More information at this link http://news.dnr.state.mn.us/2018/08/17/burn-restrictions-issued-for-northern-minnesota/
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
12z GEFS model 8.17.2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through September 2, 2018 — Talk about a pattern change! Wow! Northwest flow transitions to more of a west or southwest flow aloft as we head toward the end of the month and the start of September, if this type of pattern does develop that would open the door for heat, humidity and potential severe weather across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes later this month into early September. Certainly something to keep an eye on!
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
12z GEFS model 8.17.2018
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through September 2, 2018. No real surprise given how the pattern could setup that the below average temperatures (Blue colors on map) are replaced with above average temperatures (Orange and red colors on map) While the northwest U.S. experiences the opposite conditions, starts warmer than average then flips to a cooler than average pattern.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z GEFS model 8.17.2018
Weather Synopsis
The big weather story today was the thick smoke which covered a large part of the Northland this morning, the smoke was so thick that it blocked out the sun for most of the morning into the early afternoon hours, but this smoke has dissipated a little bit this afternoon especially in parts of northeast Minnesota.
The other weather story today was the backdoor cold front which was moving NE-SW through the area. Gusty northeast winds developed as this front moved through with temperatures near Lake Superior dropping from the mid 70s and low 80s into the 60s, while farther inland highs ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s today.
RAP model analysis at 5 PM today has a mid/upper level low over lower Michigan with an upper level ridge across the northern Rockies and an upper level trough over the Pacific northwest. Temperatures underneath the ridge climbed well into the 90s to around 100 degrees today over parts of Montana.
Tonight and Saturday: Low clouds and fog will likely expand in coverage as humid northeast winds blow off Lake Superior, the fog could become dense in some parts of the area later tonight. The low clouds and fog should dissipate between mid morning and mid afternoon Saturday with generally mostly sunny skies expected for most of the afternoon. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s with highs Saturday in the middle 60s to middle 80s, coolest temperatures near Lake Superior.
As for the smoke, not much improvement is expected through the weekend with periods of smoke, thick at times forecast to linger across the Northland.
Long Range (Sunday through Tuesday, August 19-21)
A cold front approaches from the NW which will increase the chance for some rain and a few thunderstorms especially over western-northwest sections of the area on Sunday. Scattered showers are then forecast to spread farther south/east, reaching northeast and eastern Minnesota and eventually northwest Wisconsin during the Sunday evening or Monday morning time frame. Some rain showers could linger most of the day Monday with scattered showers even possible on Tuesday. Highs Sunday will still be on the mild side ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s but it does look a bit cooler on Monday with highs ranging from around 60 to the lower 70s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 18
High: 74
Low: 55
Sunrise Saturday: 6:10 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:14 PM CDT
Tim