/Issued 5:30 PM CDT, Thursday, August 23, 2018/
21z HRRR model run
Simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM Friday to 10 AM Friday — Showers and thunderstorms become more numerous early Friday morning while they lift northeast through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Heavy downpours and occasional lightning should be the main hazards from these storms.
500mb height and vorticity forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Saturday.
Our system for tonight and Friday will be a strong one and should have a decent amount of lift with it as it passes through the upper Midwest.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, August 23, 2018
Loop time — 11:27 AM to 5:22 PM
Another impressive looking system especially for late August. Second time this week where we have a well developed low pressure system, again this is kind of unusual for this time of year.
Note: Check out the loop below to watch this pyrocumulus cloud explode this afternoon as a wildfire continues to burn today over far southern Ontario province in the Fort Frances district.
Abnormally dry conditions now cover 47% of Minnesota, up from 41% last week while moderate drought covers 9% of the state, up from 7% last week. The weather pattern looks more favorable for occasional showers and thunderstorms through next week, in fact some parts of the area could be dealing with some flooding sometime next week.
No change in this week’s drought monitor for Wisconsin. Still have 42% of the state in abnormally dry conditions, and nearly 4% of the state in moderate drought this week.
Parts of Missouri, especially the northern part of the state into far southern Iowa continue to be under severe to extreme drought with even exceptional drought covering parts of northern Missouri this week, and parts of northern lower Michigan are under severe drought per latest drought monitor update.
Update on Hurricane Lane
11 AM HST:
Location: About 200 miles south-southwest of Kailua-Kona Hawaii, about 275 miles south of Honolulu Hawaii.
Maximum sustained winds: 130 mph
Present movement: NW at 7 mph
Minimum central pressure: 949mb or 28.03 inches
More information about Hurricane Lane and its expected impacts to Hawaii at this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/2018/TCPCP2.EP142018.037.201808232043
Another real nice day with lots of sunshine for most of the day, but clouds have been increasing from SW-NE this afternoon. Highs today were in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with a breeze out of the southwest.
The long advertised pattern change is almost here. This new weather pattern will give us frequent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with potential for heavy rain and some strong to severe thunderstorms at times through early September. The risk for flash flooding could also increase in some parts of the upper Midwest including in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by next week, so even though it’s been dry lately, the overall weather pattern that is developing is one that supports a risk for flash flooding especially early next week. Should be noted that it won’t rain every day through early September, in fact will likely have dry days mixed in, but the pattern certainly looks more active for about the 2 weeks or so.
Tonight and Friday’s system is still on track to impact the Northland with occasional rain showers along with a few thunderstorms. Elevated instability does increase late tonight and Friday and this should cause a few thunderstorms to develop in parts of the area. Higher moisture advecting into our area with PWATS nearing 1.50 inches will cause some heavy downpours late tonight into Friday. In between the showers expect generally mostly cloudy skies with lows tonight in the 50s and 60s, highs Friday in the 60s and 70s, cooler than the last few days due to the clouds, showers and an easterly wind off Lake Superior.
Looks dry most of Saturday, but the risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms increases Saturday night into Sunday morning as a cold front moves through the area — The setup looks quite volatile for severe weather late Saturday night favoring western/southern portions of the Northland. Damaging winds and large hail look like the main threats right now, and again this looks to occur late Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Heavy rain and flooding could become an issue then from late Sunday night through Monday night as low pressure lifts northeast out of the western High Plains while Saturday night’s cold front stalls out and tries to lift back north as a warm front, this type of setup in the past has led to very heavy rainfall and flash flooding, and this looks to occur once again early next week, the area at greatest risk for heavy rain and flooding is still uncertain since this is still a few days down the road, but some part/s of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin could be in the zone for heavy rain and flooding early next week.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 24
Sunrise Friday: 6:18 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 8:03 PM CDT