/Issued 5:14 PM CDT, Friday, August 24, 2018/
12z European Ensemble model 8-24-2018
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Friday, August 24, 2018.
Loop time: 10:17 AM to 4:07 PM
A well developed low pressure system moving east/southeast across the upper Midwest today with scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe occurring near and south of the upper low in southern Minnesota today while areas of rain and embedded thunder occur in the cooler air to the north of the low.
Goes-16 lower-level water vapor satellite loop from Friday, August 24, 2018.
Loop time: 9:42 AM to 4:22 PM.
Drier air shows up in the yellowish colors on this map.
12z GEFS model 8-24-2018
Temperature Anomaly forecast valid through September 9, 2018.
Overall it’s looking like a warmer than average temperature pattern for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin into early September. Note: Average highs start out in the low to mid 70s with average lows in the low to mid 50s, but by September 9, the average highs drop to the upper 60s, average lows mid to upper 40s.
12z GEFS model 8-24-2018
500mb Height Anomaly forecast valid through September 9, 2018.
Still looking at a westerly flow aloft possibly turning more to the southwest with time as upper level ridging takes hold to our south/southeast while an upper level trough sets up out west, this pattern could fluctuate a bit every now and then, but the pattern continues to look more favorable to bring more frequent rains to the Northland into early September.
Note: Totals listed below are through 4 PM Friday
Gile, WI: 3.96 in
3 SSW Bruno, MN: 2.25 in
Clam Lake, WI: 2.14 in
Barnes, WI: 2.13 in
Glidden, WI: 1.86 in
Washburn, WI: 1.73 in
Hayward, WI: 1.53 in
Solon Springs, WI: 1.06 in
Moose Lake, MN: 1.06 in
Minong, WI: 1.03 in
Ashland, WI: 0.98 in
McGregor, MN: 0.81 in
Two Harbors, MN: 0.65 in
Superior, WI: 0.61 in
Grand Rapids, MN: 0.61 in
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.51 in
Pine River, MN: 0.48 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.48 in
Saginaw, MN: 0.47 in
International Falls, MN: 0.42 in
Isabella, MN: 0.38 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.29 in
Cass Lake, MN: 0.24 in
Bigfork, MN: 0.19 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 0.14 in
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•Today, August 24 marks only the 5th date so far this month with rainfall of 0.01 inch or greater — The other dates are August 1, 2, 4 and 21.
•Rainfall of 0.50″ so far today (Aug 24) is the highest daily rainfall total since Aug 4 (1.21″) Nearly 3 weeks ago!
•46 days so far this year with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees — 2018 is currently in 4th place for most number of 80 degree days in a calendar year. Record is 53 days set in 1988. I think we’re going to get close to breaking that record!
Low pressure at the surface and aloft was moving through the upper Midwest today. Rain and scattered thunderstorms were rather widespread earlier this morning with much of the Northland getting some rain today, the heaviest rain occurred in parts of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent portions of far eastern Minnesota with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches plus reported.
Skies were generally mostly cloudy today, but there has been some partial clearing over parts of the area this afternoon.
Highs today were in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Mostly cloudy skies should linger across the Northland with areas of fog and drizzle through the night while areas of rain come to an end by late tonight. Some of us will stay dry tonight while others get a bit more rain. Lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Areas of fog, low clouds and patchy drizzle should dissipate through the morning with partly to mostly cloudy skies on tap for the afternoon. It’ll be a little humid Saturday with dew points in the 60s while high temps reach the 70s, possibly up near 80 degrees in western parts of the area.
Note: Low pressure and upper level trough over the upper Midwest late this afternoon will exit to the east by Saturday morning while the next upper trough approaches from the northern Rockies on Saturday. Will see a cold front move into western Minnesota Saturday afternoon, and this boundary will move into central Minnesota/northern Wisconsin Sunday morning, then could remain over that general area or shift a little more north or south through Monday.
Instability is forecast to increase across the Northland this weekend with CAPE possibly exceeding 1000-1500 J/kg. Mid level lapse rates will become rather steep (7.0-8.0 c/km) Stronger mid/upper level winds leading to better wind shear as well (30-40 knots) All of this points to a risk for some stormy weather beginning Saturday evening and lasting through Monday — Some of the storms could be strong to severe at times, and there is also a risk for heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding, especially if storms affect the same area for several hours, or if storms affect areas that were hit by heavy rain today (northwest Wisconsin)
Cooler and drier weather moves into our area for next Tuesday and Wednesday with Tuesday looking like the cooler of the two days.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for August 25
Sunrise Saturday: 6:19 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:01 PM CDT