/Issued 3:46 PM CDT, Sunday, September 9, 2018/
12z HREF model
Rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10 to around 0.50 inch are possible late tonight into Monday morning in parts of north-central Minnesota with lower amounts in northeast Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin.
18z HRRR model
Simulated Radar forecast valid from midnight tonight through 1 AM Tuesday. Computer models are in good agreement showing an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting parts of north-central Minnesota later tonight-early Monday morning, this area of rain then weakens as it moves into northeast Minnesota Monday morning, then a few spotty showers/thunderstorms could redevelop late Monday afternoon in northeast and east-central Minnesota.
12z GEFS model 9-9-2018
Temperature Anomaly forecast valid through September 25, 2018.
Orange and red colors=Above average temperatures
Blue colors=Below average temperatures
Looks like will start out with temperatures that are mostly above average this week across the Northland, but there are signs showing up per long range model guidance for cooler (below average temps) arriving toward mid-month, around or after the 15th.
Note: Some areas of the Northland have already had their first frost of the season, and I think there is a chance for other parts of the Northland to get that first frost sometime during the week of September 16.
Note: Fall colors typically peak from mid September to early October in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin so we’re certainly getting closer to the time where we typically see peak fall foliage across the Northland.
Here’s the fall foliage map for Minnesota as of September 9, 2018 — Not a whole lot of color showing up just yet in northeast Minnesota (0-10%)
Temperature departure map for the week of September 2, 2018.
Green/Blue colors=Below average temperatures
Yellow/Orange colors=Above average temperatures
Last week’s rainfall totals were some 200 to around 800% of normal in parts of southern Minnesota and all but far northwest Wisconsin, that’s incredible!
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
September 2-8, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
9/2: 76 F/+6 degrees above normal
9/3: 73 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/4: 74 F/+4 degrees above normal
9/5: 71 F/+2 degrees above normal
9/6: 72 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/7: 72 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/8: 68 F/Normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
9/2: 58 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/3: 49 F/-2 degrees below normal
9/4: 62 F/+11 degrees above normal
9/5: 46 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/6: 39 F/-11 degrees below normal
9/7: 55 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/8: 54 F/+5 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of September 2: 62.1 degrees; +2.3 degrees above normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.40 inches
Normal: 0.95 inches
Departure: -0.55 inches below normal
State Averages for Minnesota for the week of September 2, 2018
Temperature: 64.2 degrees
Departure: +0.8 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 1.82 inches
Departure: +1.12 inches above normal
Note: With summer 2018 winding down, figured I would post a few of my favorite pictures that I took throughout the summer. Enjoy! These pics were taken around the Duluth area, St. Louis River, and a few pics of Lake Superior.
Personally I don’t think there’s anything better than warm/muggy summer days watching sunsets/sunrises, storms or watching races at one of the dirt tracks, whether its at Superior, Proctor, Ogilvie or Cedar Lake. It’s the little things!
Good-bye summer of 2018.
Partly to mostly sunny skies across the Northland today with seasonable temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Surface map at 3 PM had an area of high pressure over eastern Canada with a low pressure trough stretching from Manitoba province to South Dakota. Mid and upper level winds are out of the W-SW across the upper Midwest today per RAP model analysis.
A cold front which was over the northern Plains this afternoon will move slowly east and will reach far western Minnesota overnight. SW low level jet to ~40 knots will be in place ahead of this front tonight which will maintain a warm/moist advection pattern mainly over western portions of the Northland. Should see some showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm develop later this evening or during the overnight hours over north-central Minnesota while it stays dry in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Lows tonight will range from the 50s in northern Minnesota to the 40s in northwest Wisconsin.
A few showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday/Monday night over parts of the Northland, but widespread rain and severe weather is unlikely, in fact the majority of the area will likely stay dry. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs Monday in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
A frontal boundary will likely setup over the northern Plains from Tuesday through Thursday, this boundary is then forecast to push farther south/east and through the upper Midwest late this week (Friday-Saturday time frame)
Southerly winds ahead of this front will advect deeper moisture into the upper Midwest with dew points climbing into the mid 50s to mid 60s through midweek, and possibly higher dew points late in the week (Up ~70F?) Mild temperatures are also expected ahead of this frontal boundary with highs Tuesday through Friday in the 70s with some locations likely climbing into the 80s especially mid to late week.
Note: There could be some thunderstorms at times Tuesday through Thursday mainly in northern Minnesota due to some instability and steep lapse rates that will be in place along and north of a cap or warm temps aloft which will cover much of the upper Midwest. Chances for rain/thunder could increase late in the week (Friday-Saturday) as a cold front moves through the region.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 10
Sunrise Monday: 6:40 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 7:30 PM CDT