/Issued 4:28 PM CDT, Monday, September 10, 2018/
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 9-10-2018
Note: I still think there is a chance for a record or top 5 warmest temperature on record for some locations in the Northland from midweek into the weekend.
The area of below average temperatures over western Canada and the Pacific northwest is forecast to move farther south/east this weekend, and should eventually spread into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes sometime early to mid next week the way it looks now.
12z GEFS model 9-10-2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid through September 26, 2018.
The upper Midwest will be in a southwest flow aloft this week, but changes take place next week as winds aloft turn to the west-northwest, this will lead to cooler temperatures for next week, most likely after the 16th.
…Hurricane Florence Update…
4 PM CDT, Monday, September 10, 2018
•Location: About 525 miles south-southeast of Bermuda; About 1170 east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.
•Maximum Sustained Winds: 140 mph (Category 4 storm)
•Present Movement: West-Northwest at 13 mph.
•Minimum Central Pressure: 939 mb/27.73 inches
…Link to Key Messages for Hurricane Florence… https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205721.shtml?key_messages#contents
Here’s the forecast track of Hurricane Florence per National Hurricane Center — Florence is forecast to make landfall sometime Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening in far eastern South Carolina or eastern North Carolina and is forecast to be a major hurricane with winds greater than 110 mph.
18z NAM-Nest model 9-10-2018
Simulated Infrared Satellite forecast valid from Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning (7 PM to 1 AM) Here comes Florence!
Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches or more are possible later this week/weekend over parts of the Carolinas due to Hurricane Florence.
Rainfall Reports from around the Northland for September 10, 2018
Effie, MN: 0.84 in
Bigfork, MN: 0.68 in
Orr, MN: 0.58 in
Ely, MN: 0.57 in
Littlefork, MN: 0.40 in
International Falls, MN: 0.19 in
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.17 in
Isabella, MN: 0.16 in
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport: 0.14 in
Cook, MN: 0.10 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.02 in
There was a weak frontal boundary draped over northwestern Minnesota late this afternoon. The atmosphere has become a bit unstable ahead of this front across central Minnesota with late afternoon CAPE to around 1000 J/kg per meso-analysis. A few showers have been trying to develop this afternoon northwest of the Brainerd area near the better instability. Skies across the Northland were partly to mostly cloudy today with morning rain affecting northern Minnesota and a few showers lingering in far northeast Minnesota this afternoon. Dry conditions prevailed in northwest Wisconsin. Highs today ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s with dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Keeping an eye on east-central Minnesota up toward Duluth and Two Harbors for the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms this evening into the early morning hours of Tuesday due to increasing amounts of elevated instability which will push NE out of central Minnesota tonight. The front that is over northwest Minnesota will basically washout tonight so there isn’t much of a lifting mechanism for storms, but the combination of increasing instability, some moisture advection and a low level jet could be just enough for a few storms tonight. Severe weather is not expected tonight but brief downpours and some lightning are possible. Lows tonight will range from around 50 degrees to the lower 60s.
[Tuesday and Wednesday]
Will see a new cold front advance into the northern Plains on Tuesday, this front is then forecast to extend from west-central Minnesota to northern Minnesota by Wednesday morning. This cold front will then turn into a warm front Wednesday afternoon while it shifts slightly to the west-north. Instability along with steep lapse rates will be found across northern Minnesota Tuesday and Wednesday but a cap will also be in place with 700mb temps of +10 to +14C. It is possible that will see some showers and thunderstorms develop at times in northern Minnesota especially Tuesday night and Wednesday when the low level jet kicks in. It looks like east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will remain dry, however, Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s, cooler along the North Shore. Highs Wednesday ranging from the 60s in northern Minnesota to the mid 70s to low 80s elsewhere.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall possible late this week/weekend in parts of the Northland. The weather pattern should be rather stagnant due to Hurricane Florence which should help maintain a southwest flow aloft across our area possibly through the weekend. A cold front will move slowly S/E across the upper Midwest from Friday through Sunday. Higher dew points (Muggier airmass) will make its way into the Northland late this week, and with added lift from the approaching cold front, we should see a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms affect some parts of the area late this week into the weekend.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 11
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:41 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 7:28 PM CDT