/Issued 5:04 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 11, 2018/
15z SREF model 9-11-2018
Goes-16 Infrared Satellite loop from Tuesday, September 11, 2018.
Loop Time: 10 AM to 5:30 PM.
It’s been a stormy day north of Minnesota today in southern areas of Ontario province where clusters of thunderstorms, some strong to severe have been occurring today.
18z NAM 3km model 9-11-2018
Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 10 PM tonight to 7 PM Wednesday.
This model shows storms affecting northwest Minnesota this evening, weakening as they move farther east later tonight, then some redevelopment could occur in central Minnesota Wednesday morning with activity lifting to the NE throughout the day.
Goes-16 Mesoscale Floater one minute Infrared Satellite loop of Hurricane Florence from Tuesday, September 11, 2018. Wow!
Loop Time: 4:23 PM to 5:51 PM.
…Hurricane Florence Update…
5 PM AST, Tuesday, September 11, 2018
•Location: About 360 miles south-southwest of Bermuda; About 785 miles east-southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina.
•Maximum Sustained Winds: 140 mph
•Present Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph
•Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb or 27.91 inches
Latest track for Hurricane Florence which is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane with winds greater than 110 mph sometime Thursday night or Friday over southwest portions of North Carolina.
Red area=Hurricane Warning
Pink area=Hurricane Watch
Yellow area=Tropical Storm Watch
18z NAM-Nest model 9-11-2018
Wind Gust Forecast valid from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Friday.
As Florence heads toward the Carolinas winds will ramp up to tropical storm and hurricane force on Thursday.
18z NAM-Nest model 9-11-2018
Infrared Satellite loop from 7 PM Wednesday to 1 AM Friday.
Hurricane Florence heading toward the Carolinas later this week.
In addition to the destructive winds and potentially life-threatening storm surge, Florence will also produce a tremendous amount of rain with totals of 1 to 2 feet possible in parts of North Carolina.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
*Today marks the 49th day so far in 2018 with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees! The record for most number of 80 degree days in a year is 53 days set in 1988.
*On average our last 80 degree or warmer temperature occurs on today’s date (September 11)
In 2017 the last 80 degree temperature was on September 23.
*2 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees (1st and 11th) The average for the month of September is 2 days. September 2017 had 3 days with a high temp at or above 80 degrees.
A warm day as we near the middle portion of September! Skies were mainly sunny today in northwest Wisconsin and partly to mostly sunny in northern Minnesota. Highs ranged from the mid 70s to low 80s which is roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average for September 11.
Surface map late this afternoon had a cold front over the far eastern Dakotas with warm southerly winds occurring ahead of this front today. SW flow aloft covered the upper Midwest today per RAP model analysis.
A cold front will move east-southeast, reaching north-central to western Minnesota by daybreak. A low level jet ahead of this front will lead to a warm/moist advection pattern tonight with a rather unstable airmass in place with CAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg along with lapse rates from 7.5 to 8.5 c/km. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Northland tonight, but warm temps aloft or a cap could keep convection from developing, otherwise will have partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows ranging from around 50 to the middle 60s.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies on the way for Wednesday with highs ranging from around 70 to 80 degrees. A pooling of higher dew points from 63 to 68 degrees for Wednesday in all but far northern Minnesota where somewhat drier air will be present. Tonight’s cold front will stall out and start to lift slowly N/W as a warm front through Wednesday night. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, but these chances will shift north Wednesday night, mostly affecting far northern Minnesota. Once again warmer temperatures aloft or a cap will likely hinder widespread storm coverage despite the presence of a lifting mechanism and a moist/unstable atmosphere.
There will be little change in the weather pattern through Monday (17th) Looks like will maintain a southwest flow aloft across the upper Midwest through the weekend while a cold front moves slowly south/east into the Northland from Friday into Saturday, but this front will likely shift north again as a warm front late in the weekend before we finally get a stronger cold frontal passage to take place early next week, most likely on Monday (17th) the way it looks now.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Monday with even a chance for some activity in extreme northern Minnesota on Thursday, but most of the Northland should remain dry on Thursday. Note: The pattern that is developing will be favorable for heavy rainfall where thunderstorms occur as deeper low level moisture advects into our area Friday through the weekend with dew points of 65 to around 70 degrees!
It does look like will get a stronger easterly flow off Lake Superior Saturday which could keep highs around 60 degrees near Lake Superior, and we could also see some fog/drizzle develop near the lake on Saturday. Otherwise we’re looking at highs ranging from around 70 to the lower 80s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Thursday through Sunday.
Cooler temps are still expected next week, starting around the 18th with at least some potential for frost for the middle portion of next week.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 12
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:43 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:26 PM CDT