/Issued 6:08 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 12, 2018/
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 Infrared Satellite loop from Wednesday, September 12, 2018 — Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected portions of far northern Minnesota today with cloud tops from 40,000 to nearly 50,000 feet this afternoon!
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Another satellite loop of today’s storm in far northern Minnesota, this is the day cloud phase satellite. Note the fish scale appearance to the clouds west/south of where the thunderstorms were today, this is in indication that the atmosphere is capped.
*Hurricane Florence Update*
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
5 PM AST, Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Location: About 385 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina or about 420 miles east-southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 mph.
Present Movement: Northwest at 16 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 949 mb or 28.03 inches
Latest track of Hurricane Florence which is forecast to be a major hurricane with winds greater than 110 mph while it likely hugs the coast of North and South Carolina Friday into Saturday.
Red area=Hurricane Warning
Pink area=Hurricane Watch
Yellow area=Tropical Storm Watch
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Rainfall potential from Hurricane Florence. Still looks like parts of North and South Carolina could get 15 to 20 inches or more of rain.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 9-12-2018
Simulated Radar Forecast for Hurricane Florence valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Saturday. Hurricane Florence making its move toward the Carolinas Thursday and Friday.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 9-12-2018
Wind Gust forecast for Hurricane Florence valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Saturday.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 9-12-2018
Simulated Infrared Satellite forecast for Hurricane Florence valid from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM Saturday.
Local Storm Reports for September 12, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
•5:21 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. 1 NNE International Falls, MN (Koochiching County)
•3:57 PM: Hail — 1.00 inch. 9 ENE of Gheen, MN (St. Louis County) Quarter size hail.
•3:52 PM: Hail — 0.70 inch. 7 N Cook, MN (St. Louis County) Pea to dime size hail covering about 80 percent of the ground.
•3:45 PM: Hail — 0.25 inch. Gheen, MN (St. Louis County)
•3:30 PM: Hail — 1.00 inch. 2 E Celina, MN (St. Louis County) Quarter size hail covered the ground.
…Climate Data for September 11, 2018…
International Falls, Minnesota
Tied for 5th warmest high temperature on record for September 11 with a high on Tuesday of 82 degrees. The record high for September 11 is 86 degrees set in 1976 and tied in 1990 and 2005.
Brainerd, Minnesota
Tied for 5th warmest low temperature on record for September 11 with a low on Tuesday of 61 degrees. The record warmest low temperature for September 11 is 70 degrees set in 1931 and tied in 2005.
Weather Synopsis
A well defined warm front was over north-central Minnesota this afternoon with an impressive EML (elevated mixed layer) covering the Rockies and western High Plains with mid level lapse rates to 9.5 c/km and 700mb temps to +16C! Southwest flow aloft is advecting this EML into the Northland today, and with a warm front over the area, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms erupted this afternoon in far northern Minnesota, just N/NE of the EML and just north of the pool of greatest instability which ranged from 1000 to 2000 J/kg per meso-analysis. Otherwise we had partly to mostly cloudy skies today with highs ranging from the 60s in northern Minnesota to the lower 80s in east-central Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin. Dew points late this afternoon ranged from the low 60s to upper 60s, so quite muggy especially for mid September!
[Tonight through Monday]
Warm front which was over northern Minnesota this afternoon lifts north into Canada later tonight, this warm front turns into a cold front Thursday and moves SE into northwest Minnesota. Friday will find that cold front pushing a bit further south/east into north-central Minnesota, will then see the cold front stall out and retreat north as a warm front once again on Saturday. Will finally get a stronger cold front to push through the area and change the weather pattern just a bit early next week, most likely on Monday is when we should get that aforementioned cold front to move through our area.
The atmosphere through the weekend will be unstable as will maintain steep lapse rates and times of stronger instability, but the problem is the warmer mid level temps or cap, and with that overhead it’s likely that we won’t see much in the way of thunderstorm development in our area from late tonight into Thursday, but northwest portions of the area should see some showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night (International Falls, Bigfork areas)
A better chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives Friday night into Saturday, this is when we could see some heavy rainfall with possible training of thunderstorms over some portion of the Northland, but it’s still a little too early to say which part of the area is at greatest risk for heavy rainfall Friday night into Saturday. Stay tuned!
Low temps tonight will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs Thursday in the mid 70s to low 80s. Highs Friday through Sunday are forecast to range from the 60s to the 80s with the coolest temps north of the frontal boundary, warmest temps south of the front.
Note: It will be cooler near Lake Superior through the weekend, mostly along the North Shore, although winds could turn more easterly Saturday which would lead to cooler temps also for the South Shore of Lake Superior if those east winds do develop.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 13
High: 66
Low: 47
Sunrise Thursday: 6:44 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 7:24 PM CDT
Tim
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