/Issued 5:09 PM CDT, Thursday, September 13, 2018/
12z European model (ECMWF) 9-13-2018
18z HRRR model 9-13-2018
Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM Saturday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northland Friday with a few stronger storms possible especially Friday night.
18z NAM model 9-13-2018
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 9-13-2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid from September 18 through 23, 2018.
…Hurricane Florence Update…
5 PM AST, Thursday, September 13, 2018
Location: About 100 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina or about 155 miles east of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph
Present Movement: West-northwest at 5 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 955 mb or 28.20 inches
Visible satellite loop of Hurricane Florence from Thursday afternoon, September 13, 2018
18z NAM-Nest model 9-13-2018
Simulated Radar Forecast valid through 1 AM Sunday. Looks like the eye of Hurricane Florence makes landfall sometime Friday morning-early afternoon near the coast of southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. Florence is then forecast to weaken as it moves very slowly inland through the weekend.
Very heavy rain and storm surge with potentially life-threatening flooding is a major concern with Florence.
18z NAM-Nest model 9-13-2018
…Climate Data for September 12, 2018…
Tied for warmest low temperature on record for September 12 with a low Wednesday morning of 66 degrees. This ties with September 12, 1931 for warmest low temp on record for September 12.
Tied for warmest low temperature on record for September 12 with a low Wednesday morning of 62 degrees. This ties with September 12, 1952 for warmest low temp on record for September 12.
International Falls, Minnesota
2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 12 with a low Wednesday morning of 60 degrees. The warmest low temperature on record for September 12 is 64 degrees set in 1952.
Tied for 4th warmest high temperature on record for September 12 with a high on Wednesday of 84 degrees. The record high for September 12 is 90 degrees set in 1931.
Tied for 2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 12 with a low on Wednesday of 63 degrees. The warmest low temperature on record for September 12 is 66 degrees set in 1931.
A cold front was over far northwest Minnesota late this afternoon. Gusty and warm southerly winds were found ahead of this front today over most of the Northland with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s along with wind gusts from 20 to around 30 mph. It was cooler across northern Minnesota with highs in the low to mid 70s which is still above average for mid-September. Mostly cloudy skies covered north-central areas of Minnesota most of the day with mostly sunny skies in most of northwest Wisconsin and in far northeast Minnesota.
The cold front over northwest Minnesota late this afternoon will move farther south/east tonight and is forecast to extend from north-central to western Minnesota by daybreak. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible tonight mainly in northern Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows ranging from around 50 degrees west of International Falls to the 60s elsewhere.
Will see a cold front continue to push south/east but begin to stall out once it reaches central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin — This boundary will be the focus for scattered shower and thunderstorm development for Friday and Friday night. Heavy rainfall and some lightning will be the main threats from these storms with the greatest risk for development from late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Highs Friday will range from the mid 60s to low 70s in northern Minnesota to the low 80s in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Frontal boundary over central Minnesota pushes north as a warm front Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along and north of that boundary for Saturday. Again it looks like heavy rainfall and some lightning will be the main threats from these storms. Will also get a stronger lake wind for Saturday which should lead to some fog and drizzle near Lake Superior. Much cooler for most areas Saturday with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s, much warmer in far southern sections of the Northland with highs in the 80s (Brainerd, Hayward lakes area)
The entire Northland should be on the warm side Sunday thanks to S-SW winds, highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s, cooler mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 14
Sunrise Friday: 6:45 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 7:22 PM CDT