/Issued 3:08 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20, 2018/
Radar loop ending at 3:10 PM CDT, Thursday, September 20, 2018.
Stronger thunderstorms lifting north/east across south-central Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin at 3 PM today with widespread light to moderate rain affecting northern Minnesota late this afternoon.
19z (2 PM) HRRR model run
Simulated Radar forecast valid through 8 AM Friday.
It’s going to be a rainy evening across the Northland with some heavier rain and thunderstorms possible as well. Some more rain is possible overnight/Friday morning as low pressure pulls away from our area but is followed by an upper level trough. Gusty north-northwest winds on the way for Friday with rain ending from west-east followed by some sun by mid or late afternoon.
12z HREF model
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, September 20, 2018
Loop time: 10:07 AM to 2:42 PM CDT
A pretty strong storm coming together today as low pressure lifts northeast out of eastern Nebraska while an mid/upper level trough swings E-NE out of the northern Rockies.
3 PM Update:
…Gale Warning… remains in effect until 1 AM Friday for western Lake Superior. Northeast winds will continue to increase with gusts 30 to 45 mph through this evening. Wave heights building to 8 to 16 feet.
…East winds have been on the strong side near Lake Superior today with wind gusts to 37 mph reported at the Duluth Harbor at 3 PM today. Gusty east winds will continue through the evening with wind gusts from 30 to around 40 mph. Winds will diminish overnight, shift to the NW then will increase again on Friday…
Large scale forcing continues to increase across the Northland this afternoon as low pressure and warm front approach from the SW — So far the rain today has been on the light side with rainfall amounts under 0.25 inches through 3 PM, but we should see bands of heavier rainfall develop while impacting parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through the evening hours as better forcing occurs due to the approaching surface low and warm front.
Scattered thunderstorms are also expected late this afternoon and evening mainly from east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main severe threats up in our area. A high shear but low cape setup in place in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this evening with the better instability likely staying a little farther to the south.