/Issued 4:59 PM CDT, Monday, September 24, 2018/
Radar loop ending at 5 PM CDT, Monday, September 24, 2018.
An area of rain with some embedded heavier downpours continues to move toward the east-northeast across north-central into northeast Minnesota late this afternoon, this rain will move through eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this evening.
Note: Rain should last roughly 1 to 3 hours in any given location with rainfall amounts ranging from one tenth to one half inch with locally higher amounts possible.
There’s a decent amount of wind shear ahead of the cold front moving through the Northland this afternoon with 40-50 knots of deep layer shear, but there just isn’t much instability with CAPE of only 100 J/kg as of 4 PM per meso-analysis, so it’s unlikely that will see much in the way of thunderstorm activity this evening.
The overnight hours look mainly dry in the Northland with lows falling into the low 40s to mid 50s by dawn.
Northwest Wisconsin and far eastern/northeast Minnesota saw some sunshine today with warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s while it was generally overcast with some rain today in northern Minnesota with much cooler temperatures in the 50s.
18z NAM model 9-24-2018
500mb Vertical Velocity forecast valid from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday — Some additional showers are possible over parts of the Northland Tuesday as more energy pushes across the upper Midwest.
18z 3km NAM model 9-24-2018
Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Tuesday. One batch of rain moves through the Northland this evening, followed by possibly another round of showers Tuesday morning/afternoon especially over east-central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Much cooler temperatures for Tuesday with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
18z NAM model 9-24-2018
12z GEFS model 9-24-2018.
Temperature Anomaly Forecast valid through October 10, 2018 — Blue colors represent below average temperatures which cover a large portion of the northern U.S. and Canada over the next 2 weeks or so with the greatest departures from normal centered on the northern Rockies and west-central portions of Canada east into parts of the northern Plains (Darker blue/purple colors on map)
Temperature departure map for the week of September 16, 2018.
Precipitation departure map for the week of September 16, 2018.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
September 16-22, 2018
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
9/16: 80 F/+15 degrees above normal
9/17: 74 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/18: 61 F/-3 degrees below normal
9/19: 58 F/-6 degrees below normal
9/20: 60 F/-3 degrees below normal
9/21: 59 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/22: 62 F/Normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
9/16: 62 F/+16 degrees above normal
9/17: 55 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/18: 53 F/+8 degrees above normal
9/19: 52 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/20: 51 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/21: 41 F/-3 degrees below normal
9/22: 39 F/-5 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of September 16: 57.6 degrees (+3.4 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.80 inches
Normal: 0.98 inches
Departure: -0.18 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 16
Temperature: 61.4 degrees
Departure: +4.0 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 2.72 inches
Departure: +1.99 inches above normal
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 25
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:00 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 7:00 PM CDT