/Issued 6:17 PM CDT, Friday, September 28, 2018/
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Freeze warning in effect for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday. Overnight lows in the lower 20s to lower 30s — Outdoor plants will be damaged or killed if not protected.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 9-28-2018
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 9-28-2018
Here’s a look at when the first freeze of the season has occurred at the Duluth Airport from 2000 to 2017.
Since 2000, our first freeze in Duluth has occurred as early as September 12, or as late as October 19. The past 6 years the first freeze wasn’t until early to mid October — See list below.
Low Temperature: 32 degrees or lower.
2000: September 23
2001: September 24
2002: September 24
2003: September 28
2004: October 1
2005: October 6
2006: October 10
2007: September 12
2008: October 3
2009: October 8
2010: September 26
2011: September 15
2012: October 6
2013: October 19
2014: October 6
2015: October 7
2016: October 9
2017: October 9
2018: ???
Weather Synopsis
Cold and windy!!! 540 line has dropped south into far southern Minnesota this afternoon, with temperatures aloft cold enough for snow today across northern Minnesota, but the problem for getting snow is that near surface temps were a little too warm for snow for most of the day. In the upper levels, 850mb temperatures range from -2 to -6C with 925mb temperatures of 0C in northern Minnesota to +2 to +4C in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Thickness values support snow as the precipitation type today with values around 1300.
Surface map had high pressure over the northern Plains with cold air advection along with gusty NW winds occurring east of that high today. Skies across our area were partly sunny to mostly cloudy today with some more spotty showers which may have mixed with some snow or graupel in a few spots.
[Tonight]
Spotty rain and snow showers this evening, mainly dry overnight under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows in the lower 20s to lower 30s with a widespread freeze expected over most of the Northland.
[Saturday and Sunday]
Partly to mostly cloudy skies this weekend with highs Saturday mainly in the 40s, highs Sunday in the 40s to lower 50s. Although most of us should remain dry Saturday and Sunday, its possible that there will be a few areas of sprinkles or light showers that affect some portions of the Northland both days, but any rain that falls should be on the light side and shouldn’t be too widespread.
[Looking Ahead]
A round of rain is possible on Monday, and some of the rain could be mixed with snow in parts of north-central Minnesota with temperatures aloft remaining around 0 to -2C, but surface temperatures could warm enough to keep precipitation in the form of rain on Monday. Looks like will get a break in the rain on Tuesday, but rain chances look to return Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure moves quickly NE out of the Rockies — This system could also bring a few thunderstorms to the area for the middle of next week.
There is another system showing up per Euro and GFS models sometime around October 5-6, GFS model is mostly a miss to the south, but the Euro model has the system moving farther to the north which would bring rain and perhaps a snow event to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for late next week.
…Record Lows for September 29…
Hibbing, Minnesota
20 degrees set in 1984
Brainerd, Minnesota
21 degrees set in 1974, tied in 1984
Ashland, Wisconsin
22 degrees set in 1893, tied in 1924, 1945 and 1947
International Falls, Minnesota
23 degrees set in 1907, tied in 2015
Duluth, Minnesota
25 degrees set in 1984
Note: International Falls and Hibbing could get close to their record low temperature Saturday morning, otherwise a top 5 coldest minimum temperature is possible for September 29 for some locations in the Northland.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for September 29
High: 59
Low: 41
Sunrise Saturday: 7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 6:52 PM CDT
Tim
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