/Issued 4:46 PM CDT, Sunday, September 30, 2018/
12z European model (ECMWF) 9-30-2018
Looks increasingly likely that will get some thunderstorms over parts of the Northland late Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure approaches from South Dakota.
12z GEFS model 9-30-2018
Temperature Anomaly forecast valid thru October 16, 2018 — Trough out west, ridge out east with potentially an active storm track from the Rockies to the Great Lakes between the real cold air over the northern Rockies and very warm temperatures across the southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, southern/eastern portions of the U.S.
Heads up for late next weekend into early the following week for potentially a significant snow event for the northern Rockies and possibly the northern Plains.
Temperature departure map for the week of September 23, 2018.
Precipitation departure map for the week of September 23, 2018.
October Climate Normals for Duluth, Minnesota
Temperature: 43.2 degrees
Precipitation: 2.85 inches
Snowfall: 2.3 inches
Warmest October on record: 55.9 degrees set in 1963
Coldest October on record: 33.5 degrees set in 1917
Wettest October on record: 7.53 inches set in 1949
Driest October on record: 0.09 inches set in 1895
Snowiest October on record: 14.0 inches set in 1933
Normal high on the 1st: 58 degrees
Normal high on the 31st: 44 degrees
Normal low on the 1st: 40 degrees
Normal low on the 31st: 30 degrees
•October averages 2 days with snowfall (At least 0.1 inch accumulation) Most was 8 days set in 1925 and 1959.
•October averages 2 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees. Most was 12 days set in 1963.
Note: October 2017 was the 3rd snowiest October on record with 11.1 inches of snow.
Astronomical data for October
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:07 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:49 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 6:48 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 5:54 PM CDT
…It’s been a chilly stretch across the Northland — See stats below…
Record coldest high temperature for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 45 degrees. The previous record cold high for September 29 was 48 degrees set in 1965, tied in 1993 and 2006.
2nd coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 42 degrees. The record cold high for September 29 is 36 degrees set in 1899.
Tied for 2nd coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 43 degrees. The record cold high for September 29 is 41 degrees set in 1939.
Tied for 2nd coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 44 degrees. The record cold high for September 29 is 43 degrees set in 1876 and tied in 1972.
International Falls, Minnesota
Tied for 5th coldest high temperature on record for September 29 with a high on Saturday of 47 degrees. The record cold high for September 29 is 40 degrees set in 1908.
International Falls, Minnesota
4th coldest high temperature on record for September 28 with a high on Friday of 44 degrees. The record cold high for September 28 is 38 degrees set in 1908.
4th coldest high temperature on record for September 28 with a high on Friday of 48 degrees. The record cold high for September 28 is 43 degrees set in 1965.
4th coldest high temperature on record for September 28 with a high on Friday of 46 degrees. The record cold high for September 28 is 42 degrees set in 1942.
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•Low temperature of 30 degrees on September 29 was the first time since May 20 with a sub-freezing temperature (31 degrees)
•High temperature of 44 degrees on September 29 was the coldest high temperature since April 27 (40 degrees)
Note: Even though we’ve had a much cooler 2nd half of September, the month will finish above average in the temperature department due to the abnormally warm temperatures that occurred earlier in the month.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
September 23-29, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
9/23: 53 F/-9 degrees below normal
9/24: 70 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/25: 53 F/-8 degrees below normal
9/26: 57 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/27: 56 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/28: 50 F-10 degrees below normal
9/29: 44 F/-15 degrees below normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
9/23: 46 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/24: 51 F/+8 degrees above normal
9/25: 43 F/+1 degree above normal
9/26: 40 F/-2 degrees below normal
9/27: 44 F/+2 degrees above normal
9/28: 36 F/-5 degrees below normal
9/29: 30 F/-11 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of September 23: 48.1 degrees (-3.1 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.57 inches
Normal: 0.91 inches
Departure: -0.34 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 23, 2018
Temperature: 51.2 degrees
Departure: -3.1 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.36 inches
Departure: -0.39 inches below normal
Temperatures warmed up a bit south of Highway 2 today while it was another cool day north of Highway 2. Temperatures this afternoon ranged from the 50s near Lake Superior, east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the mid 40s in northern Minnesota. Partly to mostly cloudy skies covered the Northland today with some clouds moving SE out of northern Minnesota with more clouds moving in from the west per Goes-16 visible satellite imagery.
RAP model analysis from late this Sunday afternoon shows a W-SW flow aloft over the upper Midwest with a shortwave trough moving E-NE across the northern Rockies. Strong winds aloft with a 130 knot jet was located just N/NE of the Northland.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies for the Northland tonight. A band of FGEN in the 700mb layer was evident across central Minnesota this afternoon per meso-analysis, there has been a band of mostly virga or light rain showers underneath this FGEN band today from central Minnesota to west-central Wisconsin, this area of virga or light showers could lift a bit to the north tonight, but for the most part we’re looking at mainly dry conditions in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with lows ranging from around 30 degrees to the lower 40s.
A cool day ahead with generally mostly cloudy skies. Best chance for some rain looks to be from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin with a few light showers possible for the Iron Range, Arrowhead and Borderland areas. Low pressure and warm front will remain well to our south on Monday with the deeper moisture, heavier showers and thunderstorms setting up over parts of Iowa, Illinois, southeast Minnesota and southern Wisconsin. Highs on Monday will mainly be in the 40s, but a few locations around Bigfork and International Falls could get into the low 50s.
The pattern this week into the middle of next week looks rather active with a cold trough covering the Rockies and a warm ridge from the southern to eastern U.S. Several low pressure systems are forecast to track E/NE out of the Rockies and Plains into the middle of next week, each one of these systems could bring rain to the Northland depending on their tracks, also there will be a risk for some thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday as a push of warmer, more humid and unstable air pushes north into eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 1
High: 58 degrees
Low: 40 degrees
Sunrise Monday: 7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 6:48 PM CDT