/Issued 6:45 PM CDT, Monday, October 1, 2018/
Source: Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-1-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM model 10-1-2018
Warm air ahead of Wednesday’s low, cold air behind the low, a classic October storm!
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 10-1-2018
A brief surge of muggy air returns to the Northland on Wednesday with dew points possibly climbing into the 60s especially from east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 10-1-2018
As Wednesday’s low exits to the NE, it will deepen and will usher in a strong push of cold air advection across the Northland Wednesday night, this should lead to some strong winds over our area Wednesday night with winds shifting from SW to NW.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM model 10-1-2018
There could be another system that may impact the upper Midwest later this week, mainly in the Thursday night-Saturday time frame, but computer models are showing different tracks to this system, also differences showing up in the amount of cold air that will be over our area, and if it will be cold enough for snow or a rain-snow mix. Stay tuned! Note: Right now the NAM model seems to be the most aggressive model showing enough cold air and a potential snow event late this week, other models are warmer, showing less snow and more rain or or no precipitation at all for our area.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
00z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-1-2018
Watching at least three systems thru early next week that could affect the Northland’s weather in what looks to be a favorable pattern for storm development for the Rockies, Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Rainfall reports for Monday, October 1, 2018
Source: https://mesowest.utah.edu
Glidden, WI: 0.07 in
Hayward, WI: 0.06 in
Duluth, MN: 0.05 in
Washburn, WI: 0.04 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.04 in
McGregor, MN: 0.04 in
Moose Lake, MN: 0.04 in
Clam Lake, WI: 0.04 in
Superior, WI: 0.03 in
Two Harbors, MN: 0.03 in
Ashland, WI: 0.02 in
Finland, MN: 0.02 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.02 in
Weather Synopsis
Southern areas did get some rain today but it was much lighter than what model guidance was showing on Sunday — Rain totals today were mainly under one tenth of an inch, and most of this rain fell in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. There was some sun at times across northern Minnesota today, generally overcast elsewhere. Highs today were in the 40s to around 50 degrees, below average for the 1st of October.
RAP model analysis showed the upper Midwest in a westerly flow aloft early this evening with an upper level disturbance moving through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, the greatest moisture with this system remained well to our south today, from eastern Iowa to southern Wisconsin and northwest Illinois, this is where heavy rain and some flash flooding has been occurring this afternoon.
[Tonight]
Mostly cloudy skies with some breaks in the clouds in spots. Could be some patchy fog or drizzle tonight. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
[Tuesday]
Dry during the day under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 50s except for the 40s along the North Shore and Arrowhead. Tuesday night will find a low level jet out of the SW increasing to between 40-60 knots as low pressure moves into the western High Plains — Strong warm air and moisture advection will be taking place later in the night while a push of stronger elevated instability moves NE out of southern Minnesota. Should get some showers and thunderstorms to develop with this type of pattern later Tuesday night with some hail, lightning and heavy downpours possible especially in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
[Looking Ahead]
Potentially stormy day for Wednesday as low pressure moves northeast out of South Dakota with a warm front and cold front pushing through the Northland. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms could impact parts of our area on Wednesday with at least some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Strong winds aloft will be in place along with favorable amounts of wind shear to support severe weather, but how much instability will be available is uncertain at the moment, and will we get some clearing/heating to take place late in the morning or during the midday hours to help build-up the instability for late afternoon storms. Highs Wednesday are forecast to range from the 60s and 70s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the 50s in northern Minnesota.
Low pressure will deepen quite a bit as it pulls NE and away from our area Wednesday night and Thursday — Behind this low expect strong W-NW winds and colder temperatures.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 2
High: 58
Low: 40
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:09 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 6:46 PM CDT
Tim