/Issued 7:26 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 2, 2018/
There is a risk of some severe weather on Wednesday in much of northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota with a slight and marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in place for those areas, a greater risk of severe thunderstorms covers much of central Wisconsin for Wednesday. Stay Weather Aware!
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
12z HREF model 10-2-2018
500mb forecast valid for Wednesday afternoon — Strong winds aloft moving east out of the northern Plains will be one ingredient for possible severe weather development on Wednesday from southeast Minnesota into much of Wisconsin
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
12z HREF model 10-2-2018
Strong moisture advection will occur late tonight and Wednesday with dew point temperatures climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s from southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin by Wednesday afternoon with 60+ degree dew points even pushing north into southern parts of the Northland on Wednesday.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
12z HREF model 10-2-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 10-2-2018
Wind gust forecast valid from 5 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday
Gusty northwest winds will develop across the Northland Wednesday night as low pressure pulls away while deepening as it does so. Looking at potential for winds in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts to 45 mph for Wednesday night with gales possible over much of Lake Superior.
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
…Climate Data for October 1, 2018…
Ashland, Wisconsin
5th coldest high temperature on record for October 1 with a high on Monday of 48 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for October 1 is 41 degrees set in 1985.
Weather Synopsis
Not a lot of sun in our area today with generally mostly cloudy sky conditions. Highs were in the upper 40s to middle 50s.
…Rapid weather changes ahead through Wednesday night…
[Tonight]
An area of low pressure will be over the western High Plains with a SW low level jet increasing to around 40-50 knots ahead of this low — Strong warm and moist advection will take place later tonight over southern portions of the Northland with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing later in the night. Lows tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s.
[Wednesday]
Low pressure is forecast to track from central South Dakota to central Minnesota to north of Lake Superior between Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening — This low will deepen as it lifts northeast with pressures dropping from ~995mb to ~990mb with additional rapid deepening expected Wednesday night-Thursday morning, pressures going from ~990mb to ~970mb as the low tracks from just north of Lake Superior to western Quebec province.
Southerly flow ahead of the low will bring a brief surge of milder temps and humid weather to the Northland on Wednesday while lift associated with the approaching low, warm front and cold front lead to occasional showers and a few thunderstorms.
Elevated instability will be on the increase Wednesday with CAPE from 500 to 1500 J/kg in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, deep layer wind shear is forecast to range from 40 to 60 knots which is more than enough for severe weather and supercell development if there is enough instability. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe weather hazards for Wednesday in eastern Minnesota and especially northwest Wisconsin, but there is also some risk for tornadoes especially around the Hayward lakes area late Wednesday afternoon if some clearing can occur.
Strong cold air advection slams into the Northland Wednesday night as low pressure departs to the NE. 850mb temperatures Wednesday afternoon will range from +8C at International Falls to +20C around Hayward, then by late Wednesday night 850mb temps drop to between -3 and -7C as strong NW winds develop as the low departs.
Highs Wednesday ranging from the 50s in northern Minnesota to the mid 60s to low 70s in eastern Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin. Lows Wednesday night in the 30s.
[Looking Ahead]
Active weather pattern rolls on late this week as another system takes aim at the Northland, this one could have enough cold air with it for a rain/snow mix especially in north-central Minnesota with a chilly rain expected farther south/east…Timing of this system looks to be from Thursday evening through early Saturday morning.
Another storm, possibly stronger and slow moving lifts N-NE out of the southern/central Plains this weekend, and this system could impact the Northland from Sunday into the middle of next week with periods of rain which could be heavy at times.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 3
High: 57
Low: 39
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:10 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 6:44 PM CDT
Tim