/Issued 4:20 PM CDT, Saturday, October 27, 2018/
18z NAM-Nest model 10-27-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM Sunday. Rain will spread from west to east across the Northland tonight, rain developing first in western areas, then later on tonight for areas farther south/east. Rain should start in Duluth between 9-11 PM tonight.
Rain lingers into Sunday morning but will end from W-E Sunday afternoon.
18z NAM-Nest model 10-27-2018
Rainfall totals ranging from around a quarter to half inch are possible by early Sunday afternoon over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with possibly more than a half inch of rain in parts of north-central/east-central Minnesota.
Goes-16 lower level water vapor satellite loop from Saturday, October 27, 2018.
Tonight’s rain maker is heading SE out of Manitoba province and North Dakota late this Saturday afternoon.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-27-2018
There has been a consistent signal showing up in the Euro ensemble model for some snow across the Northland in early November. Just something to monitor in coming days.
Rainfall reports for October 26-27, 2018
Note: Totals listed below are for the 24-hour period from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM Saturday.
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 0.35 in
2 E Celina, MN: 0.32 in
Kabetogama, MN: 0.30 in
12 N Isle, MN: 0.28 in
Cotton, MN: 0.25 in
International Falls, MN: 0.23 in
Cook, MN: 0.22 in
Floodwood, MN: 0.19 in
Duluth, MN: 0.18 in
3 E Orr, MN: 0.18 in
4 E Island Lake, MN: 0.16 in
3 E Wright, MN: 0.15 in
25 E Ely, MN: 0.09 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.09 in
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•2-day rainfall total of 0.33 inches (Oct 25-26) Will add to this total as more rain is expected tonight through Sunday morning.
•4.01 inches of precipitation so far this month (Thru the 26th) The wettest October on record occurred in 1949 with 7.53 inches of precipitation. Note: October 2018 currently ranks as 19th wettest October on record, but we could move up a few more spots by the end of the month.
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Rain came to an end this morning but patchy drizzle and fog lingered throughout the day over most of the area, but there was some sun at times in far western areas (Mainly the Brainerd lakes region) Highs today were in the 40s, with lower 50s in the Pine River and Brainerd areas.
A stronger wave with a decent amount of lift will impact most of the Northland tonight into Sunday morning with an area of low pressure tracking from eastern North Dakota to southern Wisconsin by dawn.
Quite an impressive temperature gradient for this system to work with — Temps this afternoon ranging from the lower 70s along the South Dakota-Nebraska state line to the lower 40s in northeast Minnesota. Aloft, 850mb temps ranged from +14C in southern South Dakota to 0C in northeast Minnesota.
Rain spreads west-east across the Northland tonight with lingering rain showers and drizzle into Sunday morning before the rain wraps up Sunday afternoon. There could be a few breaks in the clouds allowing for some sunshine on Sunday, but overall skies still look to be fairly cloudy through Sunday afternoon.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s with highs Sunday mainly in the 40s.
Winds will shift to the NW and increase on Sunday behind the area of low pressure with wind gusts up to 25 mph possible over parts of the area.
Dry weather is expected Monday morning but rain showers could return Monday afternoon or Monday night as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. Highs on Monday in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 28
Sunrise Sunday: 7:45 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 5:59 PM CDT