/Issued 5:12 PM CDT, Monday, October 29, 2018/
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday afternoon, October 29, 2018.
Our next system that will impact the Northland tonight is moving east out of the northern Rockies and western High Plains region late this Monday afternoon.
18z NAM-Nest model 10-29-2018
Simulated radar forecast from 10 PM tonight to 10 AM Tuesday.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 10-29-2018
Favored storm track thru the next 2 weeks looks to be from the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, central/eastern Great Lakes into the northeast U.S while most of the upper Midwest has near normal precipitation totals thru November 13 per long range model guidance.
Temperature departure map for the week of October 21, 2018 — Far northern Minnesota had above average temperatures last week while the rest of the Northland saw their average temperature below average or close to average.
Precipitation departure map for the week of October 21, 2018 — Above average precipitation last week over parts of east-central Minnesota (Green, blue and purple colors on map) Below average precipitation over most of northwest Wisconsin and northeast Minnesota.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
October 21-27, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/21: 52 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/22: 54 F/+5 degrees above normal
10/23: 46 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/24: 52 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/25: 47 F/Normal
10/26: 48 F/+1 degree above normal
10/27: 45 F/-1 degree below normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/21: 26 F/-7 degrees below normal
10/22: 31 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/23: 28 F/-5 degrees below normal
10/24: 26 F/-6 degrees below normal
10/25: 41 F/+9 degrees above normal
10/26: 43 F/+11 degrees above normal
10/27: 43 F/+12 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of October 21: 41.6 degrees (+1.6 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.73 inches
Normal: 0.56 inches
Departure: +0.17 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 21, 2018
Temperature: 41.1 degrees
Departure: -1.6 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.28 inches
Departure: -0.17 inches below normal
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•4-day rainfall total of 0.88 inches (Oct 25-28)
•So far this month (thru the 28th) 4.56 inches of precipitation which ties with October 1973 for 14th wettest October in station history.
•We’ve had 21 days so far this month with an average or below average temperature; 7 days so far this month with an above average temperature. Oct 2018 (thru the 28th) is running -2.6 degrees colder than average.
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
No rain today, hallelujah! Most of the area had another day of mostly cloudy skies, however, so the late October gray period continues. Highs today were mainly in the low to mid 40s, close to average as we near the end of the month.
A few breaks in the clouds are possible over southern areas this evening, otherwise mostly cloudy skies for tonight with some more rain moving in overnight as low pressure along with some lift and warm air advection help to generate some rain later tonight. The rain shouldn’t last too long, and should clear out of our area from W-E before Noon Tuesday.
Temperatures in far northern Minnesota could become cold enough to produce a rain-snow mix or perhaps a change over to all snow early Tuesday morning, mainly north of a line from Bigfork-Hibbing to Silver Bay, but temperatures will be marginal with 850mb temps hovering between +1 and -1C while 925mb temps hover right around 0C, so it will come down to the surface temperature as to what type of precipitation will see in far northern Minnesota Tuesday morning.
As mentioned above, the rain moves out Tuesday afternoon as one low exits to the east while another low to our north drops a cold front into the Northland, but there shouldn’t be any precipitation with that front.
Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s to low 40s with highs Tuesday in the low 40s to low 50s.
Looking ahead to Halloween — Cool and breezy with highs in the 30s to lower 40s along with westerly winds gusting to around 25 mph. Looks mainly dry for most of us, but a few rain or snow showers are possible up near the Minnesota-Ontario border.
Note: There are several systems showing up in model guidance for this weekend into next week, but the tracks and strength of each system is uncertain as the computer models have been struggling lately to get a handle on the pattern as we head into early November. Could see some snow or rain at times across the Northland between November 2-8, but whether or not any of this is impactful is uncertain at the moment.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for October 30
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:48 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 5:56 PM CDT