/Issued 5:53 PM CDT, Thursday, November 01, 2018
Note: 12z European computer model from Thursday continues to be the most bullish with snowfall amounts for the system later this weekend with some hefty snow totals possible especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Other computer models show less snowfall. Stay tuned.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS)
21z HRRR model 11-1-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid from 1 AM Friday to 10 AM Friday, keep an eye near Lake Superior where a few lake effect rain/snow showers are possible Friday morning as east winds come off Lake Superior.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, November 01, 2018.
A strong area of low pressure is lifting NE thru the Ohio Valley late this afternoon, this storm produced quite a bit of severe weather on Halloween over parts of the southern U.S. with about a dozen tornado reports, and over 160 severe weather reports.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS)
That is a large area of cold air for the middle of next week represented by the blue and green colors on the map, this cold air is forecast to push farther south/east by late next week.
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area today with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s which is slightly cooler than average for the first day of November.
Tonight and Friday will feature a weak system dropping SE out of the northern Plains, most of the precipitation associated with this low should remain west/southwest of our area, although some light rain or snow could push far enough east to affect western-southern areas on Friday, but this shouldn’t be a big deal.
Winds will turn to the east as the low passes to our SW, the east flow off Lake Superior could produce a few light lake effect rain or snow showers on Friday, but there shouldn’t be any snow accumulation.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s with highs Friday in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Chances for snow or a rain-snow mix look to increase over the weekend. Some timing differences are evident per model data as to when the precipitation will affect the Northland, a few models show precipitation beginning as early as Saturday, others keep us dry until late Saturday night or Sunday morning. Regardless of these differences it does look like will get some precipitation sometime Saturday-Sunday as low pressure lifts NE out of the central Plains.
What type/s of precipitation we see will depend on the near surface temperature which looks borderline for seeing an all snow event, instead will probably start as rain, switch to snow, then go back to rain or a rain-snow mix on Sunday as the low moves overhead while pumping in enough warm air to cause the frozen precip to turn back to liquid form, the exception to all this could be along the North Shore of Lake Superior (Higher terrain areas) where enough cold air could be maintained for mostly snow as the main P-type on Sunday, and if this occurs, then several inches of snow could accumulate over that area.
Note: For the immediate lakeshore areas, it looks like will see mainly rain out of this system as east winds coming off the 45 degree lake keeps temperatures warm enough for mostly liquid precipitation, although its possible that will see a brief period of snow early Sunday morning even for the lakeshore areas.
There is another storm lined up for the early-mid part of next week, this one could be stronger than the one this weekend with a strengthening surface low and deep upper trough possibly heading toward the Great Lakes — If this system develops and tracks near the Northland, then it could bring some wind, rain and snow to the area next week.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 2
Sunrise Friday: 7:53 AM CDT
Sunset Friday: 5:51 PM CDT