/Issued 6:14 PM CDT, Friday, November 02, 2018
Mostly rain closer to Lake Superior with snow or a rain-snow mix for the rest of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Locally for Duluth and Superior: Rain below the hill (lower elevation) with some snow or a rain-snow mix on top of the hill (higher elevation) Snowfall of 1 inch or less for Duluth the way it looks now.
Here’s my snowfall potential map for Sunday
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Friday, November 02, 2018.
Easterly wind coming off Lake Superior has generated some spotty light lake effect showers today along portions of the North Shore and South Shore of the lake, note the convective nature to the clouds over Lake Superior today.
12z GEFS model 11-02-2018
Temperature Anomaly forecast valid thru November 18, 2018.
Computer models continue to be in good agreement on a colder period of weather beginning the middle of next week, and this cold air could have some staying power once it becomes established, although that’s not a guarantee quite yet, there is a chance that the coldest air only sticks around for a few days before temperatures modify, will just have to wait and see.
Note: Blue and purple colors on the map represents below to well below normal temperatures.
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 11-02-2018
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
A cool early November day but overall not terribly cold with highs today generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s which is near to a few degrees below average. Most of the area saw a mix of sun/clouds today. There’s been a few spotty lake effect showers today near Lake Superior with an easterly wind in place along with -6 to -8C 850mb temps while lake water temps were sitting around +6C.
What’s ahead this weekend?
Tonight and Saturday look mainly dry in our area with the exception to this near Lake Superior where a few light lake effect rain or snow showers will continue, but this won’t be a big deal, and no snow accumulation is expected. Lows tonight will be in the lower 20s to lower 30s with highs Saturday in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Chances for rain or snow start to increase late Saturday night over southern portions of the area including east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with dry weather continuing farther north.
The greatest chance of precipitation looks to be on Sunday, and mostly affecting northwest Wisconsin and adjacent areas of eastern and northeast Minnesota. Note: The majority of the computer models show an area of low pressure moving NE out of east-central Iowa, lifting into western-northern Wisconsin later Sunday afternoon, but the NAM model is different, showing a farther east storm track which would result in much less precipitation in northeast Minnesota except in the far northeast portion, up near Grand Marais, with the bulk of the precipitation falling over northwest Wisconsin per NAM solution. Since this system is still over 24 hours away expect the computer models to continue to shift around a bit. Either way this doesn’t look like a major snow or rain event for our area, but the potential does exist for 1 to 3 inches of snow on Sunday over parts of the Northland.
Sunday’s system could be a bigger snow event if there was colder air in place at the surface which looks unlikely right now. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s which is very marginal for snow. Temps aloft continue to look cold enough to support snow, however, with 850mb temps of -2 to -5C, while 925mb temps hover around -1 or -2C, but again near surface temps look too warm to produce much in the way of snowfall for most of the area.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 3
Sunrise Saturday: 7:54 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 5:50 PM CDT