Current headlines that are in effect for Sunday
Winter weather advisory for parts of northwest Wisconsin (Shaded area on map)
Winter storm watch for far northeast Minnesota (Shaded area on map)
Here’s my updated snowfall potential map for Sunday
Increased snow totals compared to my map from Friday.
Could see snow totals in Duluth ranging from ~4 inches on top of the hill to less than 1″ to no snow at all below the hill.
I may need to fine tune this map a bit, as there is still some uncertainty with how far west-northwest the heavier precipitation will get.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Saturday, November 3, 2018. Our storm that will impact the Northland on Sunday is over the central Plains this afternoon.
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Low pressure over eastern Kansas this Saturday evening moves north, reaching the south shore of Lake Superior around 6 AM Monday.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z HRRR model 11-03-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 11-03-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid from 7 AM Sunday to 6 AM Monday.
Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
…A strong storm will impact parts of the Northland Sunday and Sunday night…
Impacts include
•Snow with some parts of the area possibly getting more than 4 inches of snow
•Rain or a rain/snow mix
•Strong/gale force east winds Sunday afternoon-evening near Lake Superior
•Locations that see snow can expect deteriorating road conditions with snow and slush covered roads developing, along with reduced visibility due to the snow and some blowing snow
Snow is forecast to begin toward dawn across southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. Precipitation will then spread farther north/west through Noon, and is forecast to reach the Twin Ports and North Shore sometime between late Sunday morning/mid-afternoon.
Temperatures aloft will be favorable for snow on Sunday with 850mb temps ranging from -1 to -4C while 925mb temps range from -1 to -2C. Surface temperatures won’t be as cold on Sunday, and are expected to range from around 33 to 37 degrees with the ‘warmest’ temps found close to Lake Superior.
A period of rather strong lift should move from S-N through northwest Wisconsin, far eastern Minnesota and northeast Minnesota Sunday-Sunday evening, and as this occurs, some of the colder air aloft may be able to mix down to the surface which would result in the surface temps falling a few degrees, and causing areas that see rain or a rain-snow mix to change completely over to snow for those few hours when the lift is maximized over our area, then as that stronger lift moves out, we could see the snow switch back over to rain/drizzle Sunday night.
Note: These early season winter events are always tricky, especially for locations that are closer to Lake Superior. I still think will see mostly rain in the lower elevation areas near Lake Superior on Sunday, but I am a bit nervous that we could see a changeover to snow at least for a few hours late Sunday afternoon-early evening when the stronger lift passes through the area, and although not very likely, it is possible that we could pick up a quick half inch to 2 inches of snow even close to Lake Superior late Sunday afternoon.
Sunday’s storm will also produce a gale event over western Lake Superior as east winds increase to 15 to 25 mph during the morning, then to 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, the strongest winds are forecast to occur late Sunday afternoon thru Sunday evening. Maximum wave heights are expected to range from 8 to 10 feet near the immediate shore to around 13 to 19 feet farther out over the lake. This will be a brief gale event, however, lasting roughly 6 hours, but will still be dangerous.
Note: Will be in between systems on Monday, but chances for some rain or snow return for Monday night and Tuesday followed by a much colder pattern by late next week which could feature some more opportunities for some snow.
Duluth, Minnesota climate normals for November 4
High: 42
Low: 28
Sunrise Sunday: 6:56 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:48 PM CST
Tim
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