Sunday morning weather update — 9 AM
A few changes have been made to the winter weather headlines — See maps below.
1: A winter storm warning covers southern Cook County in far northeast Minnesota from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM Monday.
2: A winter weather advisory has been expanded farther west to include the Counties of Douglas and Burnett in northwest Wisconsin.
The advisories are in effect until 6 PM today for northwest Wisconsin, and from 2 PM this afternoon until 6 AM Monday for the Arrowhead of Minnnesota.
Rain begins in Duluth-Superior by 11 AM with a changeover to snow expected on top of the hill between 1-3 PM today.
The area of strongest lift will continue to push farther north later this afternoon/this evening as the surface low approaches from eastern Iowa.
Mid-morning temperatures shows the influence of Lake Superior as E-NE winds coming off the 40+ water is keeping temperatures on the ‘mild’ side close to the lake with temps in the 37 to 39 degree range.
No changes made to my snowfall potential map
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Sunday morning, November 4, 2018.
Our Sunday storm continues to organize over Iowa this morning, the surface low is forecast to track N-NE from eastern Iowa to northern Wisconsin by late tonight while an approaching upper level trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves over the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through tonight.
Snow or a rain-snow mix covered most of northwest Wisconsin, this area of precipitation is lifting toward the north.
Rain should begin to fall in Duluth/Superior by 11 AM, with precipitation reaching the North Shore and Arrowhead this afternoon, between about 12 PM-2 PM.
Temperatures are warm enough for the precipitation to start as rain in Duluth, but with dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s, there is some room for the temperature to fall, and that should happen which will cause the rain to change to snow in higher elevation areas (on top of the hill) this changeover should occur between 1-3 PM today. Closer to Lake Superior, lower elevation areas, it will be difficult for us to get snow with temperatures close to 40 degrees late this morning, but there is a chance as the strongest lift passes through that it will be able to mix down enough cold air for a few hour window where the rain mixes with or changes over to snow for some lower elevation areas by Lake Superior, I still don’t think this is a good chance, but can’t be ruled out for later this afternoon-early this evening.
As for snowfall amounts — Potential for about 2 to maybe 4 inches of snow on top of the hill in Duluth with possibly a half inch or so of slushy accumulation below the hill (if it snows at all)
Most of northwest Wisconsin and along the North Shore (Inland from Lake Superior) can expect snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, while far northeast Minnesota has a potential to see 4 to 7 inches of snow by early Monday morning.
If you have travel plans through tonight be alert for changing weather and road conditions. Some roads will be snow and slush covered and very slippery. Strong winds will also lead to some areas of blowing snow with reduced visibility at times through this evening.
Speaking of the winds, they will be on the strong side today especially near Lake Superior. Already getting 10 to 20 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph this morning, and those will increase further this afternoon through this evening with east winds of 25 to 40 mph with higher gusts possible. Note: The strongest winds are forecast to occur between ~2 PM-10 PM today.