Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Low pressure was centered near the northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, northwest Illinois state line, this low will continue to lift to the north tonight, reaching southern Lake Superior (Near the Apostle Islands) by dawn.
Snow in blue; rain in green
Snow and rain continues to lift to the north early this evening, precipitation will diminish from south to north later tonight.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Sunday, November 4, 2018.
Strong storm lifting north into the western Great Lakes tonight.
Here’s my snowfall accumulation map through tonight
The only change to the winter weather headlines is for Burnett County in northwest Wisconsin where the winter weather advisory has been cancelled.
Winter storm warning continues until 6 AM Monday for a small part of far northeast Minnesota.
Winter weather advisory continues until 6 AM Monday for parts of the Arrowhead of Minnesota.
Winter weather advisory for most of northwest Wisconsin until 6 PM this evening.
If you have travel plans tonight be prepared for changing weather and road conditions. Some roads will be snow and slush covered. Reduced visibility this evening due to the snow and possibly some blowing snow.
Here’s a couple radar images tracking the progression of today’s system which brought snow and rain to parts of the Northland.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM model 11-4-2018
Precipitation type forecast for Tuesday morning — More details below.
Monday’s storm will have a severe side to it with a severe weather outbreak possible from the ArkLaMiss, northeastward to Kentucky. Damaging winds and tornadoes including a risk for a strong tornado on Monday.
Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 11-4-2018
850mb temperature forecast valid thru Wednesday, November 14, 2018. Strong signals continue to show up for a stretch of very cold temperatures over a large portion of the U.S.; the cold air heads S/E later this week into early next week, and could dip as far south as the Gulf Coast which would be pretty crazy for early November!
What does this mean for the Northland? Our normal highs in early November are in the upper 30s to lower 40s with normal lows in the in the 20s. This shot of cold air could keep daytime highs in the teens and 20s while overnight lows fall into the single digits in some parts of our area with even some subzero temps possible in a few spots, that would be impressive for this time of year.
Road condition links
Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org//mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf
Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts
Link to Duluth Harbor and other cams – http://www.duluthharborcam.com/
Preliminary Snowfall Reports thru 4 PM CST, Sunday, November 4, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Gile, WI (Iron County) 3.0 inch
5 N Edgewater, WI (Sawyer County) 2.0 inch
5 E Gordon, WI (Douglas County) 1.0 inch
Duluth Airport (St. Louis County) 1.0 inch
4 PM Update
Today’s storm is going pretty much as forecasted with a surprise thrown in, but what storm doesn’t have a surprise or two? Rain changed over to snow in lower elevation areas near Lake Superior this afternoon, webcams have been showing snow falling in Canal Park and also in Two Harbors, but a few miles inland, including west End and west Duluth, precipitation has stayed mostly in the form of rain, although there have been a few attempts where the rain has tried to switch over to snow, but this transition has been unsuccessful so far thru 4 PM. So the snow in Canal Park, but rain in west Duluth is a bit surprising to me. Even though it has been snowing in Canal Park there’s been little if any accumulation per webcam images.
On top of the hill in Duluth, rain did switch over to snow as expected with about 1 inch of snow accumulation reported so far at the Airport per NWS report.
The strongest forcing and heaviest precipitation is occurring now and will continue thru the evening, then precipitation rates will diminish from S-N later tonight with weaker forcing moving in as the surface low approaches the area from the south.
Precipitation types through the evening should continue to be in the form of snow inland from Lake Superior while rain or a rain-snow mix continues close to Lake Superior, then later tonight we should see areas of drizzle, light rain and light snow, and this should linger into Monday morning.
Monday afternoon looks dry with a few peeks of sun possible although not very likely to happen. The next system will be affecting the Northland Monday evening through Wednesday as a broad upper level trough and a few areas of low pressure pass through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This system will bring rain or snow to our area Monday night and Tuesday, then as colder air moves in we should see mostly snow for Tuesday night and Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty on snowfall amounts with this next system but I do think most of our area will pick up at least a half inch to one inch of new snow by midweek, and some parts of the area could get more than that.
Tim
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