Here’s my snowfall potential map thru Tuesday evening — This will be another event with marginal temperatures for snow, locations that see snow could have some melting occur at times as precipitation switches back and fourth from rain to snow through Tuesday. Near Lake Superior and in northwest Wisconsin expect mostly rain through Tuesday afternoon, then a switch to snow occurs Tuesday night with a coating of snow possible by Wednesday morning.
Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z HRRR model 11-5-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Water vapor satellite loop from Monday, November 5, 2018.
An active weather pattern continues with another low pressure system bringing rain and snow to the northern Plains and upper Midwest while a severe weather outbreak affects parts of the Southern Mississippi Valley region tonight.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z HRRR model 11-5-2018
Simulated radar forecast from 7 PM this evening to Midnight Wednesday.
Green=Rain
Blue=Snow
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
21z RAP model 11-5-2018
That area of very cold air (Black outlined area on the map) spreads farther south/east by mid to late week.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Computer Model (ECMWF) 11-5-2018
This is incredible! Check out how widespread the cold air/below average temperatures are for late this week!
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Computer Model (ECMWF) 11-5-2018
And here’s a look at next Wednesday, again very impressive in regards to how widespread the cold/below average temps are forecast to be for the middle of next week.
Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu
Snowfall totals varied quite a bit across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Sunday with the least amount of snow close to Lake Superior with the greatest totals found along portions of the North Shore in the higher terrain areas slightly inland from Lake Superior.
Snowfall Totals for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
Note: Totals listed below are from November 4-5, 2018
3 E Finland, MN (Lake County) 6.0 inches
3 NNW Butternut, WI (Ashland County) 4.5 inches
Gile, WI (Iron County) 4.0 inches
7 WNW Two Harbors, MN (Lake County) 3.4 inches
2 N Moquah, WI (Bayfield County) 2.7 inches
3 WNW Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County) 2.6 inches
2 WNW Seeley, WI (Sawyer County) 2.2 inches
Duluth Airport (St. Louis County) 1.8 inches
4 W Grand Marais, MN (Cook County) 1.2 inches
Gordon, WI (Douglas County) 0.8 inches
1 W Solon Springs, WI (Douglas County) 0.8 inches
12 W Drummond, WI (Bayfield County) 0.4 inches
Ashland, WI (Ashland County) 0.2 inches
Climate Data for November 4, 2018
Ashland, Wisconsin
3rd wettest November 4 on record with 0.58 inches of precipitation on Sunday. The wettest November 4 on record is 0.80 inches set in 1938.
Duluth, Minnesota
4th snowiest November 4 on record with 1.8 inches of snow on Sunday. The record snowfall for November 4 is 6.3 inches set in 1993.
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Sunday’s storm continued to affect our area today with mostly cloudy skies along with a few rain or snow showers. A damp and cool day with highs generally in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees.
Surface map early this evening had an area of low pressure north of Minnesota across southern Ontario province with another low over far eastern Saskatchewan province and a third low over western Iowa. There was a broad upper level trough covering the northern and central Plains per RAP model analysis.
Gray, cool, wet and in some areas snowy conditions will be found over the Northland tonight and Tuesday as a couple areas of low pressure impact the upper Midwest along with an upper level trough and cold front.
Light rain tonight and Tuesday in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin where temperatures remain just warm enough for liquid precipitation, but farther west/north there will be some colder air which will cause a rain/snow mix, and at times just snow through Tuesday.
Low pressure exits to the E/NE later Tuesday while another cold front moves through the Northland, it’s behind this second cold front where a much colder airmass will reside, and as that boundary moves through we will see the rain or mixed rain-snow change over to all snow across the entire area Tuesday night with some light snow and flurries lingering into Wednesday.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s to upper 30s with highs Tuesday in the 30s to around 40 degrees.
Much colder by late this week, continuing thru the weekend, and possibly into early next week with highs in our area possibly only reaching the 20s, some locations possibly staying in the teens! Overnight lows in the single digits and teens with a chance for near zero or subzero temps in parts of the Northland — Very cold for this time of year! Will be under a NW flow aloft so we shouldn’t see any major storms impacting our area, but the occasional clipper type system with skiffs of snow are possible later this week into early next week.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 6
High: 41
Low: 27
Sunrise Tuesday: 6:58 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:46 PM CST
Tim
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