Here’s my snowfall potential map for Thursday night-Friday.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
21z RAP model 11-7-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM model 11-7-2018
Vorticity Forecast valid from Thursday morning (6 AM) to Saturday morning (6 AM)
A potent upper trough digs S-SE into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Friday while low pressure lifts NE into the eastern Great Lakes.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 11-7-2018
Not a big surprise that precipitation totals are forecast to be below average across the upper Midwest for the next 2 weeks or so given the upper level winds/jet stream which will be out of the northwest or west, that’s not to say we won’t be getting any precipitation through November 22, but any precip we get should be rather light.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 11-7-2018
There are differences in the pattern showing up in the long range between the EPS and GEFS models, EPS is a milder solution for the Northland with more of a zonal or west-east flow developing next weekend, while the GEFS model maintains more of a colder NW flow for the upper Midwest. Will be interesting to see how things evolve later next week. Will El Nino begin to take over with milder Pacific air or will other atmospheric players keep us in the freezer mid to late month? Stay tuned!
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 11-7-2018
Snowfall reports for November 6-7, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
7 WSW Pine River, MN: 2.2 in
Blueberry, WI: 2.0 in
Gile, WI: 2.0 in
5 S Herbster, WI: 1.8 in
1 WSW Maple, WI: 1.7 in
2 W Leonidas, MN: 1.5 in
Maple, WI: 1.5 in
7 WSW Pine River, MN: 1.3 in
7 N McGregor, MN: 1.2 in
14 W Isabella, MN: 1.0 in
3 E Orr, MN: 1.0 in
Embarrass, MN: 1.0 in
Cook, MN: 1.0 in
Grantsburg, WI: 1.0 in
Hurley, WI: 1.0 in
3 E Wright, MN: 0.8 in
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 0.8 in
25 E Ely, MN: 0.8 in
International Falls, MN: 0.7 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.6 in
Wrenshall, MN: 0.5 in
Duluth Airport: 0.5 in
Island Lake, MN: 0.4 in
2 WSW Lutsen, MN: 0.2 in
Temperature and Precipitation Report for Duluth, Minnesota
October 28 through November 3, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/28: 49 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/29: 41 F/-4 degrees below normal
10/30: 49 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/31: 42 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/1: 40 F/-4 degrees below normal
11/2: 42 F/-1 degree below normal
11/3: 44 F/+1 degree above normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
10/28: 40 F/+9 degrees above normal
10/29: 37 F/+7 degrees above normal
10/30: 35 F/+5 degrees above normal
10/31: 32 F/+2 degrees above normal
11/1: 26 F/-3 degrees below normal
11/2: 28 F/-1 degree below normal
11/3: 31 F/+3 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of October 28: 38.3 degrees (+1.4 degrees above normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.26 inches
Normal: 0.52 inches
Departure: -0.26 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 28, 2018
Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Temperature: 40.8 degrees
Departure: +1.6 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.33 inches
Departure: -0.10 inches below normal
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
A chilly early November day with highs generally in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees (Normal highs on November 7 are in the upper 30s to lower 40s) Plenty of clouds today although some locations did see a few peeks of sun. Scattered snow showers and flurries also occurred today, heaviest along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin with snowfall amounts of 1 to around 3 inches today. It was also a blustery day thanks to a W-NW wind of 10 to 20 mph.
RAP model analysis from 4 PM Wednesday showed a W-NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest. A chilly airmass overhead with 850mb temperatures of -10 to -14C across the Northland.
Mostly cloudy skies are expected to continue through Friday, but a few sunny breaks can’t be ruled out Thursday or Friday, but I don’t think will see a whole lot of sun on either day.
Scattered snow showers and flurries for tonight with some lake effect snow developing off some of the larger inland lakes with plenty of cold air moving over the milder larger bodies of water.
Flurries and spotty snow showers continue Thursday, then a bit of a complex situation sets up for Thursday night and Friday which could result in parts of northern Wisconsin getting several inches of snow, or not much snow at all — Energy diving S-SE into the upper Midwest with additional energy lifting NE through the Ohio Valley coupled with very cold air and a favorable N/NW wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to some heavier lake enhanced/lake effect snow especially on Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior, I’m going with 2-5 inch totals at the moment, but those amounts could end up higher or trend lower during the next 24 hours. Some snow showers could also impact parts of northeast Minnesota Thursday night and Friday with some minor snow accumulation possible.
Lows tonight will range from around 10 above to the mid 20s, highs Thursday mainly in the 20s.
There appears to be a greater chance that will see some sunshine on Saturday, but a weak clipper system approaching from the NW later in the day will cause any sun to give way to more clouds and possibly some light snow for Saturday night-Sunday.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 8
High: 40
Low: 26
Sunrise Thursday: 7:01 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:43 PM CST
Tim