Here’s my snowfall forecast for Thursday night. Could see a few adjustments during the next 24 hours. Stay tuned.
18z NAM model 11-14-2018
500mb vorticity forecast valid from Thursday morning thru Saturday morning.
Three low pressure systems through Saturday.
Number one, and the strongest of them all passes well to our SE on Thursday as it heads through the Ohio Valley.
Number two, tracks E-SE across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday and Friday.
Number three, tracks SE out of the northern Plains on Friday and takes a track a little farther south compared to Thursday’s system.
You know you’ve been in a cold stretch when highs near freezing feels good! Many of us in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin had highs at or above the freezing mark today, first time that has happened in about a week! Much warmer temperatures over parts of southwestern Minnesota where highs climbed into the 50s today thanks to some downsloping off the Buffalo Ridge.
A large winter storm will be impacting areas from Arkansas and Missouri through the Ohio Valley into the northeast U.S. through Friday while freeze warnings are in effect down to the Gulf Coast!
A strong storm system is affecting parts of the Midwest and southeast U.S. tonight with snow, mixed precipitation and rain — This storm moves up the East coast by Friday.
12z GEFS model 11-14-2018
Looking ahead to the temperature forecast for Thanksgiving week shows that the Northland will have below average temperatures for next week. There were conflicting signals showing up in the model data for next week with the Euro solution consistently showing milder temps, while the GEFS model showed cooler temps. The Euro has trended more toward the GEFS model as of late so it’s looking more likely that it will be cool next week, but there could be a brief warm-up mid to late next week, kinda similar to what is occurring this week, but overall cooler than average temperatures are expected next week.
Climate Data for November 13, 2018
2nd lowest minimum temperature on record for November 13 with a low on Tuesday of -10 degrees. The record low for November 13 is -12 degrees set in 1986, tied in 1995.
Tied for 2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for November 13 with a high on Tuesday of 15 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for November 13 is 13 degrees set in 1940.
Tied for 2nd lowest maximum temperature on record for November 13 with a high on Tuesday of 17 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for November 13 is 15 degrees set in 1911.
4th lowest maximum temperature on record for November 13 with a high on Tuesday of 17 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for November 13 is 12 degrees set in 1911, tied in 1982.
Tied for 4th lowest minimum temperature on record for November 13 with a low on Tuesday of 2 degrees. The record low for November 13 is -7 degrees set in 1986.
Tied for 3rd lowest minimum temperature on record for November 13 with a low on Tuesday of -2 degrees. The record low for November 13 is -6 degrees set in 1986.
Tied for 5th lowest maximum temperature on record for November 13 with a high on Tuesday of 20 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for November 13 is 6 degrees set in 1986.
Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Cold airmass which has been in place for a while now has finally pushed out of our area thanks to a Pacific airmass which has pushed the coldest air farther north into Canada today. High temps across the area were mainly in the 30s today under partly to mostly sunny skies.
High pressure covered the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with low pressure to our NW. Strong warm air advection is occurring across the upper Midwest today with early evening 850mb temperatures of +2 to +6C over all but far northeast Minnesota.
A mild night ahead, haven’t been able to say that for weeks! Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Highs Thursday will be in the 30s to lower 40s under mostly cloudy skies. Some snow or mixed precipitation should begin to affect northern areas by Thursday afternoon, this precipitation is then expected to move farther S/E Thursday night, affecting eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. This precipitation will be caused by an area of low pressure along with its cold front which will pass through the Northland from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
Another cold front moves through the area on Friday while low pressure heads SE out of the northern Plains. Most of the snow with Friday’s low looks like it will remain in western-southern areas of Minnesota based on the track of the low, but some light snow and flurries could affect the Northland at times Friday and Friday night. Highs Friday although cool, won’t be terribly cold with highs expected to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Colder air returns this weekend as 850mb temperatures fall to around -15 to -20C! Highs are forecast to be in the teens and 20s Saturday and Sunday, well below average for mid November.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 15
Sunrise Thursday: 7:12 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:35 PM CST