Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 11-17-2018
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-17-2018
Here’s what I’m thinking for snowfall totals Sunday night-Monday. This system is still about 24-30 hours away (as of 6 PM Saturday) so some changes in the computer models are possible which could alter snowfall amounts a bit.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 visible satellite image from Saturday afternoon, November 17, 2018
Where the snow fell Friday night, temperatures late this Saturday afternoon were much colder versus areas a little farther north where no snow fell, and where there is little to no snow currently on the ground.
Source: https://mrcc.illinois.edu
Last night’s clipper stayed well south of the Northland as it impacted parts of the Dakotas through western-southern portions of Minnesota, northern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-17-2018
A cold start to Thanksgiving week for the Northland, but milder temperatures are expected toward the end of the week. Greatest departures from normal for next week cover the northeast U.S. and eastern Canada.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-17-2018
Seeing some major differences in the temperature forecast during the long range. Widespread above average temps across Canada while cooler than average temps cover much of the southern/eastern U.S. per 12z Nov 17 EPS model.
Source: http://www.consonantchaos.com
Meanwhile the Recurring Rossby Wave Train is pretty much the complete opposite with its temperature forecast showing the coldest air across Canada and the northern U.S. (Nov 27-Dec 1) represented by the blue and purple colors on map, while milder temps cover the eastern U.S. Note: Definitely a low confidence forecast as we head toward the end of this month and the beginning of December.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very cold mid November day, but it didn’t feel too bad thanks to all the sunshine along with rather light wind speeds which helps a lot as well! Highs today were only in the mid teens to low-mid 20s Roughly 15 degrees below normal for November 17, but again with the abundant sun it really didn’t feel too cold.
23z RAP model analysis showed a NW flow covering the upper Midwest with 850mb temperatures ranging from -10C in southern Minnesota to -16C in northern Minnesota to -20C north of Lake Superior.
It’ll be a cold but generally quiet night across our area under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will range from the single digits below to lower teens above zero. High pressure over the western High Plains this evening will move toward the S-SE tonight which will cause winds to shift from the NW to the SW across the Northland later tonight.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday with a few flurries possible as a cold front sags south into northern Minnesota. Highs will be a little warmer compared to Saturday with temperatures Sunday afternoon in the 20s to around 30 degrees.
An Alberta Clipper heads SE through the northern Plains and upper Midwest for Sunday night and Monday — This system looks like it will bring some accumulating snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with snowfall amounts anywhere from a half inch to around 2 inches possible.
Higher snow totals are possible near Lake Superior due to a period of lake enhanced snow early Monday morning along the North Shore, including the Twin Ports area, then as winds shift to the north before Noon Monday, the threat for lake effect snow affects only the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin.
Note: It looks like the Monday morning commute could be impacted by snow leading to slippery roads in parts of the Northland.
There is a chance that we could be affected by another clipper sometime in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, but there is less agreement in the computer models with this one.
Overall its a cold pattern into midweek, but it still looks like will thaw out a bit from Thanksgiving into next weekend, but there could also be some precipitation in the form of rain, snow or a wintry mix at times late next week or next weekend.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 18
High: 34
Low: 21
Sunrise Sunday: 7:16 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:31 PM CST
Tim