Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight and Monday, overall not too many changes from 24 hours ago, just slightly lower snow totals from 1-3″ to 1-2″ for some of us.
•Highest snow amounts along the South Shore of Lake Superior where 3 to 5 inches of snow is possible by Monday afternoon.
•2 to 3 inches of snow for Duluth and Superior, most of it falling overnight thru around 7-9 AM Monday.
•Still a low chance for an isolated 4 inch snow total along the North Shore of Lake Superior, between Two Harbors and Duluth, but I don’t think those chances are very high.
•Monday morning commute will be impacted by snow with slippery road conditions and reduced visibility in some parts of the Northland.
18z NAM-Nest model 11-18-2018
Simulated Radar Forecast valid from 6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Monday.
Snow gradually develops across the Northland tonight, snow tapers off from NW-SE Monday morning, but snow showers will likely persist through Monday afternoon along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin due to lake effect snow.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Sunday, November 18, 2018.
Our snow event for later tonight is currently moving E-SE through the northern Plains this Sunday afternoon. It’ll be a quick hitter with some snow developing as the better lift arrives later this evening.
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 11-18-2018
Temperatures are forecast to warm a bit later this week, but much like last week’s thaw, this upcoming one also looks brief, lasting maybe 2 days before the cold weather returns late next weekend. The ‘warmest’ days look to be on Friday and Saturday, November 23-24 with potential for widespread above freeing highs across the Northland.
Temperature departure map for the week of November 11, 2018 — Incredible cold last week, and even with the brief thaw we had around midweek, the average temps still finished 9 to around 15 degrees colder than normal across the Northland, wow!
Precipitation departure map for the week of November 11, 2018 — A dry week in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Not a big surprise given how persistent the cold temperatures have been so far this month that much of the lower 48 is running colder than average, with the greatest departures from normal covering the northern Plains, upper Midwest and central Plains. Very impressive stretch of cold weather!
Here are a few temperature departures for the month (Thru the 17th)
St. Louis, Missouri: -11.0 degrees below normal
Kansas City, Missouri: -10.9 degrees below normal
Brainerd, Minnesota: -9.0 degrees below normal
Eau Claire, Wisconsin: -8.9 degrees below normal
Des Moines, Iowa: -8.6 degrees below normal
Minneapolis, Minnesota: -7.8 degrees below normal
Duluth, Minnesota: -6.5 degrees below normal
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
November 11-17, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/11: 25 F/-13 degrees below normal
11/12: 20 F/-18 degrees below normal
11/13: 17 F/-20 degrees below normal
11/14: 35 F/-1 degree below normal
11/15: 37 F/+1 degree above normal
11/16: 33 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/17: 21 F/-14 degrees below normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/11: 17 F/-8 degrees below normal
11/12: 8 F/-16 degrees below normal
11/13: 2 F/-21 degrees below normal
11/14: 12 F/-11 degrees below normal
11/15: 29 F/+7 degrees above normal
11/16: 20 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/17: 8 F/-13 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of November 11: 20.3 degrees (-9.4 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.04 inches
Normal: 0.52 inches
Departure: -0.48 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 11, 2018
Temperature: 21.2 degrees
Departure: -10.6 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.14 inches
Departure: -0.24 inches below normal
The average temperature so far this month in Minnesota (thru the 17th) is 27.0 degrees which is -7.6 degrees colder than normal. Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A cold end to the weekend with highs today ranging from upper teens to lower 20s with slightly warmer temperatures across east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with highs in the mid to upper 20s. Skies were generally mostly cloudy today with a few peeks of sun. Few flurries around the area as well today.
RAP model analysis from Sunday afternoon (21z) showed a NW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures ranged from -2C in southwest Minnesota to -14C in far northeast Minnesota to -22C across northern Ontario Province.
Clipper affects the Northland tonight with snow gradually developing across parts of the area later this evening/overnight. Snow ratios are forecast to range from around 13:1 to 16:1 and with projected modeled QPF, thinking will see about 1 to 2 inches of snow in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with up to 3 inches in a few spots, while higher snow amounts impact portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior due to lake effect snow which will persist through Monday afternoon.
There will be a brief window for potential lake effect snow along the North Shore of Lake Superior early Monday morning with winds out of the NE, but the threat for lake effect snow won’t last long as winds shift to the N-NW which will end the lake effect potential for the North Shore.
Note: A period of gusty N-NE winds could develop near Lake Superior late tonight-Monday (Roughly from 2 AM to Noon) Wind gusts 15-25 mph are possible during that time.
Lows tonight will range from the single digits below to around 20 above zero, coldest temps in far northern Minnesota, near the Ontario border.
Highs Monday in the mid teens to mid 20s.
Another clipper could affect the Northland on Tuesday with a burst of snow possible which will spread NW-SE across the area. Doesn’t look like much accumulation right now, generally around an inch or so.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 19
Sunrise Monday: 7:17 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:30 PM CST