Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z RGEM model 11-19-2018
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 11-19-2018
Black line on map represents the leading edge of the snow. Times shown are approximate and could vary +/- an hour
For Duluth: Snow is possible Tuesday roughly from 10 AM to 2 PM.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 11-19-2018
Simulated Radar Forecast valid for Tuesday (6 AM-6 PM)
Blue=Snow
Looks like a quick hitting snow event for Tuesday, lasting roughly 4 hours in any given location. The snow moves from NW-SE during the day and comes to an end from NW-SE during the afternoon.
Note: Snowfall amounts anywhere from a half inch to around 2 inches are expected with Tuesday’s clipper.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
21z RAP model 11-19-2018
700mb Vertical Velocity forecast for Tuesday (6 AM-Noon)
The green colors on the map represent stronger lift in the atmosphere which will help produce some snow across the Northland on Tuesday as that stronger lift moves through the area.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z RGEM model 11-19-2018
Quite a large temperature gradient setting up for Tuesday afternoon with near 60 degree temps in southern South Dakota to the 10s in northeast Minnesota — This temperature contrast will help generate some light snow up in our area on Tuesday.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM model 11-19-2018
Snowfall Reports for November 19-20, 2018
Source: https://www.weather.gov/dlh/
1 ESE La Pointe, WI: 6.3 inch
4 WNW Washburn, WI: 5.0 inch
5 SSE South Range, WI: 3.0 inch
3 E Payne, MN: 3.0 inch
3 N Mahtowa, MN: 2.7 inch
1 N Cloquet, MN: 2.5 inch
Duluth, MN (Airport) 2.1 inch
Moose Lake, MN: 1.7 inch
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 1.5 inch
3 NE Brainerd, MN: 1.2 inch
3 W Iron Junction, MN: 1.1 inch
2 S Pine River, MN: 1.0 inch
1 SW Ely, MN: 0.8 inch
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Last night’s snow event lingered a little longer than expected with snow not coming to an end in Duluth until late this morning, otherwise the forecast verified nicely with final snowfall totals and the area that was expected to get snow.
Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies were found across the area today with you guessed it, more very cold temperatures! Highs today were in the teens and 20s.
Surface map from late this Monday afternoon had an area of high pressure over the northern Plains. 500mb flow was out of the NW across the upper Midwest with late afternoon 850mb temperatures of -10C in extreme southern Minnesota to -18C in far northern Minnesota to -22C in central Ontario Province.
Tonight will be a cold one thanks in part to the fresh snow that some of us got last night. High pressure moves S-SE out of the Dakotas tonight with some warm air advection arriving but not until Tuesday morning. Lows tonight will range from around 10 above to 10 below zero with clear to partly cloudy skies this evening, followed by partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Snow showers will linger this evening along the South Shore of Lake Superior with an additional dusting to 2 inches of snow accumulation.
One more clipper will impact our area on Tuesday as low pressure near the Manitoba Lakes during the morning heads SE and out into central Lake Superior by Tuesday evening — A burst of warm air advection and some lift will accompany this system which will produce some snow on Tuesday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Some patchy freezing drizzle is also possible Tuesday afternoon once the snow ends. Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Tuesday with highs in the teens to around 30 degrees, mildest temps around the Brainerd Lakes area.
Tuesday night looks cold once again thanks to a reinforcing shot of arctic air behind Tuesday’s clipper.
Wednesday will find a strong area of high pressure passing north of Lake Superior which will cause winds to turn to the east, and with a cold airmass still in place, we should see some lake effect snow showers develop on Wednesday mainly affecting the North Shore of Lake Superior, down toward the Twin Ports.
It will turn milder late this week from Thanksgiving through Saturday with daytime highs in the 30s to lower 40s, warmest day looks to be on Friday. Along with the milder temps comes the risk for some patchy freezing drizzle on Thanksgiving which will be followed by a threat for mixed precipitation from Friday night through the upcoming weekend — It’s a low confidence forecast after Thursday with a lot of spread on model solutions with what could happen this weekend. Potential exists for several inches of snow in parts of the Northland to just some snow/rain showers with little accumulation this weekend.
An arctic blast is possible sometime next week, but again model differences are quite significant with regards to the upper level pattern this weekend into next week. Weather could get very interesting around here, or not too interesting at all. Stay tuned!
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 20
High: 33
Low: 20
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:19 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:30 PM CST
Tim
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