The pattern we’ve been in for really the last several weeks is impressive for so early in the season. Cold…Cold…Cold…But I know lets just ignore all this cold weather, and temperature departures of 10, 20, 30 degrees below average, no big deal, right? Major 2-day thaw moving in, might crack the freezing mark for a whole 2 days, now that is impressive, I mean 5 degrees above average, incredible warmth!
Now back to the big weather story, which has been the cold temperatures!
•Hibbing, Minnesota — New record low temperatures set for November 18-19
•Duluth, Minnesota — 2nd lowest minimum temperature set for November 20, and a 3rd lowest minimum temperature for November 19.
•Several other cities in the Northland have had a top 5 coldest high and or low temperature on record as well over the past few days — See stats below.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-20-2018
500mb Height Anomaly Forecast valid thru November 30, 2018.
The main takeaway from this model is that the cold weather will linger through next week, but we will get a brief break in the cold late this week. The 500mb pattern favors cold temperatures for the Northland with higher heights/blocking continuing to our north represented by the warmer (reddish colors on map)
12z GEFS model 11-20-2018
Potential is there for a strong area of low pressure to move out into the central Plains this weekend, but right now it doesn’t look like it will come far enough north to bring snow to the Northland. Only 4/20 GEFS members show this system impacting us with several inches of snow this weekend, the other ensemble members keep the snow farther south.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-20-2018
Low Temperature reports from Tuesday morning, November 20, 2018
Skibo, MN: -16 F
5 E Seagull Lake, MN: -14 F
5 NW Ash Lake, MN: -13 F
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: -12 F
1 W Isabella, MN: -12 F
2 NNW Cotton, MN: -12 F
Silver Bay, MN: -11 F
Grand Marais Airport: -11 F
Cook, MN: -11 F
Ely, MN: -11 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -11 F
Orr, MN: -11 F
2 WNW Duluth, MN: -10 F
3 WNW Twig, MN: -10 F
2 SW Moose Lake, MN: -10 F
Crane Lake, MN: -9 F
Cloquet, MN: -9 F
Aitkin, MN: -8 F
4 SSE South Range, WI: -8 F
Bigfork, MN: -8F
Moose Lake, MN: -8 F
Duluth Airport: -7 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -6 F
Two Harbors, MN: -6 F
Brainerd, MN: -5 F
Hinckley, MN: -4 F
*Breaking* It’s been a cold stretch across the Northland — See stats below.
November 19, 2018
A new record low temperature was set for November 19 with a low on Monday of -10 degrees. The previous record low temperature for November 19 was -1 degrees set in 1964.
3rd lowest maximum temperature on record for November 19 with a high on Monday of 17 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for November 19 is 11 degrees set in 1978.
2nd lowest minimum temperature on record for November 19 with a low on Monday of -3 degrees. The record low temperature for November 19 is -12 degrees set in 1932.
3rd lowest minimum temperature on record for November 19 with a low on Monday of -6 degrees. The record low temperature for November 19 is -10 degrees set in 1932.
International Falls, Minnesota
4th lowest maximum temperature on record for November 19 with a high on Monday of 15 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for November 19 is 9 degrees set in 1978.
Tied for 4th lowest minimum temperature on record for November 19 with a low on Monday of -6 degrees. The record low temperature for November 19 is -11 degrees set in 1996.
November 18, 2018
A new record low temperature was set for November 18 with a low on Sunday of -2 degrees. The previous record low temperature for November 18 is -1 degrees set in 1986, tied in 1989.
Tied for 5th lowest maximum temperature on record with a high on Sunday of 20 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for November 18 is 14 degrees set in 2014.
Tied for 4th lowest minimum temperature on record with a low on Sunday of 9 degrees. The record low temperature for November 18 is 3 degrees set in 1989.
November 17, 2018
2nd lowest minimum temperature on record for November 17 with a low on Saturday of -6 degrees. The record low for November 17 is -9 degrees set in 1959.
4th lowest maximum temperature on record for November 17 with a high on Saturday of 17 degrees. The coldest high temperature on record for November 17 is 8 degrees set in 1959.
5th lowest maximum temperature on record for November 17 with a high on Saturday of 21 degrees. The coldest high tempearature on record for November 17 is 2 degrees set in 1959.
-Meteorological Fall 2018 is running nearly -3.0 degrees colder than average across Minnesota (-2.8 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us Note: Meteorological Fall is the period from September 1 to November 30. Temperature stats thru November 19.
-So far this month, 5 one-inch or greater snowfalls at Duluth, Minnesota (Average for November is 4 one-inch or greater snowfalls)
-10 days with snowfall of at least 0.1 inch so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota (Average for November is 9 days)
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Hey it snowed today! Timing of today’s snow event was off by a few hours, blame the models, that’s always the easy way out. Snowfall amounts were generally in the half inch to one inch range with most of the snow falling in a 2-4 hour window.
Today’s snow was caused by another clipper which as of early this Tuesday evening was over central Lake Superior. There was quite a temperature contrast across the region today with 850mb temperatures of +2 to +6C from western North Dakota through most of South Dakota into southwest Minnesota while 0 to -14C 850mb temps covered the rest of Minnesota.
Highs today made it into the 40s in southwest Minnesota, 50s in parts of South Dakota with much colder 10s and 20s across the Northland.
A reinforcing shot of cold arctic air moves into our area tonight and lingers into Wednesday as a strong 1035+ mb high passes north of our area. 850mb temperatures will bottom out in the -10 to -20C range with even colder air just to our north with 850mb temps down to around -28C!
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries should give way to clear to partly cloudy skies overnight.
Lows Wednesday morning will range from the single digits above to around 20 below zero with some locations north of the border close to 30 below by dawn!
Wednesday will be another very cold day but we should have quite a bit of sunshine with the exception to this being near Lake Superior where we could see some lake effect clouds and snow flurries as winds shift from the N to the E. Highs Wednesday ranging from around 10 above to the lower 20s.
Warmer temperatures arrive Thursday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s, warmer yet on Friday as highs get into the 30s to lower 40s (Friday will likely be our warmest day)
Temperatures trend cooler this weekend with much colder temps on the way for next week.
Potential for some snow or mixed precipitation across the Northland Friday afternoon through the weekend, but model differences continue to show in regards to how much snow some parts of the area could get over the weekend.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 21
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:20 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 4:29 PM CST