Source: http://www.intellicast.com
Radar loop ending at 5 PM CST, Friday, November 23, 2018.
Rain covers much of southern and eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin early this Friday evening. Rain is lifting to the N/NE.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 11-23-2018
Simulated Radar forecast valid from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM Saturday.
Green=Rain
Blue=Snow
With how warm it was today, precipitation will begin as rain this evening over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, then as some cooler air moves in Saturday morning will see the rain switch over to snow from NW-SE.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Friday, November 23, 2018.
Tonight’s rain/snow maker is heading northeast out of western Iowa late this Friday afternoon.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for late tonight-Saturday.
Heads up if you have travel plans that take you to southern Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri or Illinois — A winter storm is expected to bring several inches of snow along with gusty winds to parts of those states this weekend, spreading from SW-NE. The snow reaches southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois on Sunday.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-23-2018
Temperatures cool off on Saturday, although still not too bad, but starting Sunday will have another round of very cold temperatures settle into the Northland which will then persist into the middle of next week.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-23-2018
Looks like an active weather pattern setting up for the next 2 weeks especially from the western U.S. to the central and eastern portions of the U.S.
Here in the upper Midwest, precipitation totals are forecast to be near to slightly above average thru early December.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Temperatures took off today thanks to some sunshine and warm 850mb temperatures which were in the +2 to +4C range most of the day. Highs made it into the 40s which is roughly 10 to 15 degrees above average for November 23.
Note: The high of 44 degrees in Duluth on Friday (Nov 23) ties with Nov 3 for the warmest temperature we’ve had so far this month (Nearly 3 weeks ago!)
A wet night ahead for some of us as an area of low pressure tracks NE out of southwest Minnesota while a trough and cold front approaches from the west. Strong 12-hour 500mb height falls of 90 meters covered the upper Midwest this afternoon per meso-analysis, so this is a fairly organized system.
Lift tied with the approaching low, trough and cold front will cause precipitation over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight. P-types will start as rain and drizzle with the warm air in place, but later tonight through the day Saturday will see the rain change to some snow and flurries from W-E as low pressure heads out over Lake Superior which will usher in a cooler airmass.
Note: Locations closer to Lake Superior probably won’t have much snow left on the ground by daybreak thanks to the warm temps we had on Friday which will be followed by some rain tonight while temps remain above the freezing mark!
Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s in far northern Minnesota to the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Saturday’s high temps will hold nearly steady from tonight’s lows.
Colder air returns on Sunday with highs in the teens and 20s, these colder temperatures will likely persist into the middle of next week with potential for subzero lows in parts of the Northland early next week.
Not much snow is in the forecast through the middle of next week. A little bit late tonight-Saturday for some of us, then possibly around the middle of next week, but that doesn’t look like much right now. There are some indications showing up per long range model data for a stronger system next weekend which could bring rain or snow to the upper Midwest (Nov 30-Dec 3)
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 24
High: 31
Low: 17
Sunrise Saturday: 7:24 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:26 PM CST
Tim