Latest winter weather headlines as of late Saturday afternoon ahead of Sunday’s winter storm.
Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory
Blue=Winter Storm Watch
A significant winter storm will impact portions of the central Plains and central/eastern Great Lakes through early Monday morning.
18z HRRR model 11-24-2018
Simulated Wind Gust forecast from Midnight tonight to Midnight Monday.
Purple and red colors indicate potential for wind gusts from 30 to 50 mph or stronger.
18z HRRR model 11-24-2018
Simulated Radar forecast valid from Midnight tonight to Midnight Monday.
Pink colors=Mixed precipitation
Note: Heavier snow represented by darker blue colors (Potential for 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates)
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 11-24-2018
Watch the evolution of this weekend’s winter storm and arctic airmass which will cover areas from the upper Midwest to the eastern U.S. thru midweek.
12z European Computer Model (ECMWF) 11-24-2018
Still a ways out, but I’m watching next weekend (Nov 30-Dec 3 time frame) for a potential storm that may affect the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes per European model guidance.
Note: The GFS model keeps this system well to our south, tracking from the central Plains to Ohio Valley, while the GFSFV3 model which is the newer version of the GFS model does show a system affecting the region next weekend.
12z European Ensemble Model (EPS) 11-24-2018
The one problem should a storm develop and affect us next weekend is the lack of real cold air. Above average temps are forecast over much of Canada so there’s not much cold air to tap into if a storm does develop. What this means is that we could be looking at a rain or mixed precipitation event across the Northland for next weekend, but there is plenty of time for this to change.
Precipitation Reports for November 23-24, 2018
Note: Totals listed below are from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM Saturday.
3.3 ESE Finlayson, MN: 0.61 in
2.0 E Poplar, WI: 0.58 in
0.8 S Askov, MN: 0.51 in
Duluth, MN: 0.50 in
Wolfridge, MN: 0.49 in
4 E Island Lake, MN: 0.46 in
Ely, MN: 0.32 in
Butternut, WI: 0.22 in
Cotton, MN: 0.18 in
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 0.18 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.16 in
Hurley, WI: 0.15 in
3 E Wright, MN: 0.08 in
Cook, MN: 0.05 in
Togo, MN: 0.04 in
Climate Data for November 23, 2018
Note: We’ve had several days this month with record or a top 5 coldest max or min temperature across the Northland, but on Friday it was all about the warm temps!
International Falls, Minnesota
Tied for 3rd highest minimum temperature on record for November 23 with a low on Friday of 30 degrees. The warmest low temperature on record for November 23 is 36 degrees set in 2001.
Tied for 5th highest maximum temperature on record for November 23 with a high on Friday of 40 degrees. The record high temperature for November 23 is 50 degrees set in 2011.
3rd warmest minimum temperature on record for November 23 with a low on Friday of 34 degrees. The warmest low temperature on record for November 23 is 41 degrees set in 2009.
Tied for 4th highest minimum temperature on record for November 23 with a low on Friday of 35 degrees. The warmest low temperature on record for November 23 is 39 degrees set in 1905.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Cooler temperatures across the area today compared to Friday as an area of low pressure moved out over Lake Superior with winds today coming out of the NW which is ushering in a much colder airmass. Early Saturday evening 850mb temperatures ranged from -4 to -10C across the Northland with cold air advection covering the upper Midwest.
Highs today were in the 30s to around 40 degrees but those temperatures occurred early in the day. This afternoon, temperatures had fallen into the mid 20s to low 30s with a gusty NW wind at 10 to 25 mph.
Rain, drizzle and snow along with patchy freezing drizzle impacted parts of the area today with 0.3 inches of snow reported at the Duluth Airport.
Note: The Duluth Airport’s snow depth dropped from 3 inches at 6 AM Friday to 1 inch as of 6 AM Saturday thanks to above freezing temps during the day and at night along with about a half inch of rain! Meanwhile, below the hill in Duluth there is very little snow left on the ground after Friday’s thaw and rain event.
The main weather story for our area for the next couple of days will be the return of very cold temperatures.
Lows tonight will be in the single digits to around 20 degrees with highs Sunday in the teens and 20s.
Monday and Tuesday look even colder with highs in the teens to around 20 degrees, lows in the single digits below to around 10 above zero — 850mb temperatures will bottom out in the -10 to around -20C range on Monday and Tuesday.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected in our area through Tuesday with occasional flurries and snow showers which could put down a light coating of snow in some parts of the area. The South Shore of Lake Superior could get some lake effect snow showers through Monday with snowfall amounts of 1 to around 5 inches possible mainly over parts of Ashland and Iron County.
Also for tonight be aware that roads and sidewalks could become icy in parts of the area due to temperatures falling well below freezing while wet roads earlier in the day possibly turn icy tonight.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 25
Sunrise Sunday: 7:26 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 4:26 PM CST