Winter weather headlines map as of 4:05 PM CST, Sunday, November 25, 2018.
18z NAM model 11-25-2018
Very heavy snowfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are expected by Monday afternoon over a large swath from northern Missouri, southern Iowa thru north-central Illinois into southern lower Michigan with a sharp gradient in snowfall totals north/south of the 6-12 inch snow band.
Radar loop thru 3:30 PM CST, Sunday, November 25, 2018.
Snow in blue, rain in green — The rain-snow line shifts farther south/east tonight as low pressure tracks E-NE out of south-central Missouri. This storm is so dynamic that it’s even producing some instances of Thundersnow!
Goes-16 lower-level water vapor satellite loop of today’s blizzard from Sunday, November 25, 2018.
18z NAM model 11-25-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid from 6 PM Sunday to Noon Monday
Darker blue colors indicate the potential for 1-2″+ per hour snowfall rates.
18z NAM model 11-25-2018
850mb wind forecast thru Noon Monday.
Yellow and red colors indicate potential for 40-60+ mph winds at 850mb — A lot of this will mix down to the surface tonight with 30-50+ mph wind gusts which will result in whiteout and blizzard conditions from parts of northern Missouri, southern Iowa to northern Illinois and extreme southeast Wisconsin.
Temperature departure map for the week of November 18, 2018 — Another week with well below average temperatures across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Average temps for the week finished anywhere from 6 to nearly 10 degrees below normal, even with that late week thaw that we had.
Precipitation departure map for the week of November 18, 2018 — Above average precip totals last week for some areas near Lake Superior, parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin (Green, blue and purple colors on map) Below normal precip totals across northern Minnesota.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
November 18-24, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/18: 23 F/-11 degrees below normal
11/19: 23 F/-11 degrees below normal
11/20: 22 F/-11 degrees below normal
11/21: 19 F/-13 degrees below normal
11/22: 32 F/Normal
11/23: 44 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/24: 38 F/+7 degrees above normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/18: 7 F/-14 degrees below normal
11/19: -6 F/-26 degrees below normal
11/20: -7 F/-27 degrees below normal
11/21: 7 F/-12 degrees below normal
11/22: 19 F/+1 degree above normal
11/23: 31 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/24: 25 F/+8 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of November 18: 19.8 degrees (-5.9 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.78 inches
Normal: 0.47 inches
Departure: +0.31 inches above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 18, 2018
Temperature: 21.7 degrees
Departure: -5.9 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.16 inches
Departure: -0.21 inches below normal
•The last time Duluth, Minnesota had a week where the average temperature finished above normal was the week of October 28 (+1.4 degrees above normal from Oct 28 to Nov 3)
•There’s only been 4 days so far this month without any precipitation at Duluth, Minnesota (1st, 3rd, 13th and 14th) Yet the precip total of 1.55 inches for November (thru the 24th) is -0.19 inches below normal.
Note: We’re heading into the final few days of Meteorological Fall 2018 (The period from September 1 to November 30)
Here are the stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Thru November 24)
Average temperature: 42.6 degrees
Departure: -1.3 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 9.73 inches
Departure: +1.03 inches above normal
Snowfall: 12.3 inches
Departure: -0.4 inches below normal
…Three things I’m watching this week…
1: Very cold temperatures
2: A few light snow events
3: Perhaps a stronger storm next weekend
Let’s start with the cold — Highs today were in the mid teens to mid 20s (Normal highs for Nov 25 are in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees) A common theme we’ve seen this month has been the cold temperatures with several days of highs and lows some 10 to 20+ degrees below average!
The cold temps persist thru Tuesday with daytime highs in the lower teens to lower 20s.
Low temps tonight, Monday night and Tuesday night are forecast to range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero.
Will keep the partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions thru Tuesday with some flurries and snow showers with a chance for a coating to an inch of snow late Monday night-Tuesday.
Occasional lake effect snow showers for the South Shore of Lake Superior thru Tuesday with a NW flow in place between the strong low to our SE and high to our NW. There are some indications showing up in model guidance for a gravity wave to setup Monday night-Tuesday which could cause an increase in snow intensity in parts of Douglas and Bayfield County in northwest Wisconsin. Snowfall accumulations thru Tuesday of 1 to around 4 inches are possible along portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior.
A more widespread light snow event is possible sometime in the Wednesday night-Friday time frame as a warm front approaches from the SW while some warm air advection moves into the upper Midwest.
*Now onto the potential storm for next weekend, Dec 1-3*
Two potential tracks per model guidance from Sunday, November 25.
Track number one is more to the west (EURO, ECMWF) and (Euro Ensemble, EPS) Greater impacts for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Track number two is farther south/east (GFS, GEFS) This would lead to lesser impacts for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
For now it’s a broad area that I’ve highlighted for a potential snow event or mixed precipitation event for next weekend since the computer models show differing tracks to the surface low which isn’t surprising for something that is about a week away. Stay tuned!
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 26
Sunrise Monday: 7:27 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:25 PM CST