18z HRRR model 11-26-2018
Simulated radar forecast valid through 6 PM Tuesday.
Forecast map below is for Thursday morning.
Note: I’m still keeping an eye on a potential storm that may impact northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin sometime in the Saturday-Monday time frame (Dec 1-3) Euro and its ensemble remain farther north with the track of the low which would result in far greater impacts in terms of snow or mixed precip for the Northland this weekend, while the GEFS model is much farther southeast with the storm track, which would lead to very little precipitation for the Northland. Stay tuned!
12z European Computer model (ECMWF) 11-26-2018
European Computer model (ECMWF)
Forecasters look for trends in the computer models, and as you can see on the map below, the European model has been bouncing around quite a bit on its placement of a low pressure system for this weekend, meaning the Euro model is sort of an odd model out type of solution at the moment as there has been very little consistency with the placement of the low.
The map below are 6 model runs per Euro model valid for 6 AM Sunday, December 2.
European Ensemble model (EPS)
Now let’s look at the Euro Ensemble model’s last 6 runs and its trend valid for 6 AM Sunday, December 2. A bit more consistency noted in the Euro Ensemble with where they have an area of low pressure late this weekend
Meanwhile the GEFS model continues to show this weekend’s low farther southeast vs. the Euro model, and if the GEFS solution verifies, then most of the Northland wouldn’t get much precipitation over the weekend with low pressure tracking toward the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Note: Another way of looking at how cold it’s been this month and really most of this fall is by the number of heating degree days. Heating degree days or HDD is a measurement designed to quantify the demand for energy needed to heat a building. It is the number of degrees that a day’s average temperature is below 65 degrees F, which is the temperature below which buildings need to be heated.
Heating Degree Day stats for Duluth, Minnesota
So far this month 1073 heating degree days — The average for November (thru the 26th) is 916. (+157 above average)
Since September 1 — 2030 heating degree days — The average from September 1 to November 26 is 1892. (+138 above average)
Heating Degree Day stats for International Falls, Minnesota
So far this month 1149 heating degree days — The average for November (thru the 26th) is 994. (+155 above average)
Since September 1 — 2332 heating degree days — The average from September 1 to November 26 is 2090. (+242 above average)
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Blustery and cold with a mix of sun/clouds and snow flurries today with highs in the teens to lower 20s. Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.
Weather pattern won’t change much through Tuesday with low pressure anchored to our east and high pressure to our W-NW. Will keep the cold air around with continued NW breezes which could gust to around 25 mph at times.
Expect occasional flurries and snow showers across the area through Tuesday with little to no accumulation. The exception to this will be along the South Shore of Lake Superior due to some lake effect snow and also a gravity wave induced snowfall which is forecast to setup across parts of Douglas and Bayfield County late tonight, lingering at times through Tuesday. Snowfall amounts for those areas will range from 2 to around 6 inches by Tuesday afternoon with about 1 to 3 inches of snow possible in parts of Douglas County.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the single digits and teens with a few of the typical cold spots possibly dropping to the single digits below zero. Highs Tuesday will be in the teens to around 20 degrees.
Milder temperatures by late this week as high pressure moves off to our S/E causing winds to turn to the south. Will also have a round of snow sometime in the Wednesday evening-Thursday afternoon time frame with a couple inches of accumulation looking likely across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Highs Friday and Saturday should get above freezing for most of us, ranging from the mid 30s to possibly the low 40s! Next week looks much colder again, and in between we could be dealing with a storm for this weekend.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 27
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:28 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:24 PM CST