The Northland will be on the northern edge of a strong winter storm this weekend. The track per model guidance keeps the greatest impacts in terms of snowfall south of our area, but a NE wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to areas of freezing drizzle in parts of our area Saturday and Sunday, along with some lake effect snow showers by Sunday once enough cold air moves in. Note: The track of this storm could shift a bit north or south during the next 24-36 hours. Stay tuned.
Winter storm warning in pink
Winter storm watch in blue
These winter weather headlines are in effect from Friday evening through Sunday.
18z GEFS model 11-29-2018
Snowfall forecast from Saturday morning thru Monday morning.
20 GEFS model members shown in the image below, they all keep the heaviest swath of snow out of the Northland this weekend.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Thursday, November 29, 2018.
This weekend’s storm that will impact the upper Midwest has finally made it ashore as it moves thru California today with heavy rain (flash flooding and mudslides)
Goes-16 lower level water vapor satellite loop from Thursday, November 29, 2018.
Just another satellite view of the strong storm moving into the western U.S. today. Impressive!
18z NAM model 11-29-2018
200mb Forecast valid from 6 AM Friday to 6 AM Sunday.
This will be a powerful storm this weekend across the Plains with the upper level trough taking on a negative tilt on Saturday. An impressive storm signature!
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 11-29-2018
Still some spread in the computer models with where the surface low will be come Saturday night-Sunday morning. Models place the low as far NW as southeast South Dakota, a few have it in far southern Minnesota, others in northern Illinois, but the consensus seems to be that the surface low will move into southern Iowa by Saturday night which is just too far south to give the Northland much snow.
Severe thunderstorms with a risk of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes on Friday across the ArkLaTex. The risk for some severe weather shifts farther east/northeast for Saturday.
Note: It’s been a cold November across the Northland — Here’s where November 2018 ranks thru the 28th.
4th coldest November on record dating back to 1938.
Tied for 4th coldest November on record dating back to 1905.
Tied for 13th coldest November on record dating back to 1874
14th coldest November on record dating back to 1899.
International Falls, Minnesota
15th coldest November on record dating back to 1897.
Snowfall Reports for November 29, 2018
2 NNE Bigfork, MN: 4.0 inch
International Falls, MN: 3.3 inch
Ely, MN: 2.8 inch
6 E Island Lake, MN: 2.2 inch
1 N Federal Dam, MN: 2.0 inch
3 W Wrenshall, MN: 1.8 inch
2 SW Two Harbors, MN: 1.5 inch
1 NNE Cloquet, MN: 1.3 inch
Duluth Airport: 1.3 inch
1 W Solon Springs, WI: 1.2 inch
5 SSE South Range, WI: 1.0 inch
Note: International Falls, Minnesota had their 2nd snowiest November 29 on record today with 3.3 inches of snow thru 4 PM. The record snowfall for November 29 occurred in 2010 with 3.7 inches of snow.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Snow along with areas of freezing drizzle and patchy fog were common across most of the area today with most of the snow confined to northern Minnesota this afternoon. Snowfall amounts have been in the 1 to 4 inch range since early this morning, pretty much what was forecast with the highest totals in northern Minnesota. Haven’t seen any snowfall reports yet out of Cook County where some lake enhanced snow has probably occurred at times today with the southerly flow coming off Lake Superior. High temps today were mainly in the mid to upper 20s, close to average for late November.
Surface map early this Thursday evening had an area of low pressure over southeast Manitoba province. A milder airmass covered the upper Midwest with 5 PM 850mb temperatures of +2C in southern Minnesota to -6C in northern Minnesota.
Will probably get some breaks to develop in the clouds at times through Friday, but overall expecting mostly cloudy skies to continue. Areas of freezing drizzle and patchy fog for tonight with snow showers continuing in northern Minnesota through the evening. Lows tonight mainly in the 20s.
High temperatures on Friday will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s, a few locations possibly climbing into the upper 30s.
Storm for this weekend looks like it will stay south of the Northland per trends in model guidance, but we will feel some impacts from this storm in terms of gusty NE winds near Lake Superior and possibly some patchy freezing drizzle and snow showers this weekend.
…Looking Ahead… No major snow events are expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin thru next week the way it looks now, but a weak system (clipper origin) could bring a light dusting of snow to the area sometime around the middle of next week. Near to below average temps expected next week with a period of arctic air possible toward the end of next week.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for November 30
Sunrise Friday: 7:32 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:23 PM CST