A major storm will impact the Plains, parts of the upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend with a severe component on one side and heavy snow on the other side.
For those keeping track, this is the 2nd major storm of the season that has missed Duluth. The first one last weekend really had no chance to come this far north, but this weekend’s storm had potential to come far enough north to give us snow, but it won’t be doing that.
Remember in my winter forecast I did mention that it would be difficult for us to get a major storm around here this winter given the overall pattern, but also mentioned that there would be a few opportunities for us to get hit with a whopper, just comes down to the storm track, which so far has been unfavorable for our local area (0-2)
By the way for those that missed it, here is a link to my Winter Forecast for Duluth, Minnesota https://www.northlandweatherblog.com/2018/11/2018-2019-winter-forecast-for-duluth.html
Here’s my snowfall forecast for this weekend, most of this snow will fall Saturday evening into Sunday.
•Northwest Wisconsin will get most of the snow with potential for 3 to 6 inches of snow along portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior due to a combination of some system snow and lake enhanced snowfall.
•The remainder of northwest Wisconsin (Away from the South Shore) can expect anywhere from a coating to around 3 inches of snow.
•Less than an inch of snow farther west, including for Superior, Duluth and the I35 corridor.
•Patchy freezing drizzle is possible over parts of the Northland through Saturday night.
•Gusty NE winds develop near Lake Superior during the day Saturday with the strongest gusts occurring from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning with wind gusts of 25 to around 40 mph.
Winter Storm Warning in pink
Winter Weather Advisory in purple
2 to 5 inches of snow in southern Minnesota (Advisory area) with higher amounts in the warning area. A light glaze of ice is also possible.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Friday, November 30, 2018.
Impressive looking storm heading out into the central Plains tonight.
Here’s the track of the storm this weekend
Low pressure tracks from western Oklahoma this evening to southeast Iowa by Sunday morning. This kind of storm track favors the heaviest swath of snow stretching from southern South Dakota and north-central Nebraska into southern Minnesota.
18z NAM model 11-30-2018
Simulated radar forecast from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM Sunday
Pink-Purple=Mixed precip types
12z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 11-30-2018
Not good news for fans of snow as it looks drier than average in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin thru mid December, that’s not to say that we won’t get any snow thru then, but anything we get would be on the light side per EPS model guidance.
Note: Today, Friday, November 30 is the final day of Meteorological fall 2018 or the period from September 1 to November 30 — This fall was cooler and drier than average at Duluth while statewide it was cooler and wetter. I’ll have the complete climate stats for Fall 2018 over the weekend.
Hard to believe that we’re heading into the final month of the year already!
Here are the December Climate Normals for Duluth, Minnesota.
Temperature: 14.8 degrees
Precipitation: 1.21 inches
Snowfall: 17.7 inches
Warmest December on record: 32.7 degrees set in 1877
Coldest December on record: 1.8 degrees set in 1983
Snowiest December on record: 44.3 inches set in 1950
Least snowiest December on record: 0.9 inches set in 1905
Wettest December on record: 3.89 inches set in 1879
Driest December on record: 0.07 inches set in 1905
Normal high on the 1st: 27 degrees
Normal high on the 31st: 19 degrees
Normal low on the 1st: 14 degrees
Normal low on the 31st: 3 degrees
Average number of subzero nights: 10
Average number of days with snowfall (At least 0.1 inch accumulation) 13
Average number of days with snowfall (At least 1.0 inch accumulation) 5
Astronomical Data for December
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:33 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset on the 1st: 4:22 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st: 4:29 PM CST
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
We wrapped up the month of November on a gloomy and damp note with areas of fog and patchy drizzle (freezing drizzle) highs today were close to normal in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
The big story through the weekend will be the powerful storm that moves NE out of the southern Plains. Low pressure in the 985-990mb range tracks from western Oklahoma to southeast Iowa — This storm will bring gusty NE winds to parts of the Northland this weekend with some snow gradually moving into parts of northern Wisconsin Saturday night. Patchy freezing drizzle is also possible across parts of the area through Sunday morning.
Lake effect snow showers could develop on Sunday once enough cold air advects into the area. 850mb temperatures are forecast to fall to around -10C by Sunday which is enough of a difference between the lake temp and air temp to generate lake effect snow. Winds will be out of the N-NE, so the South Shore of Lake Superior is at risk for some lake effect snow on Sunday.
Lows tonight and highs Saturday ranging from around 20 to the lower 30s.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 1
Sunrise Saturday: 7:33 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:22 PM CST