12z European Computer model (ECMWF) 12-2-2018
12z European Computer model (ECMWF) 12-2-2018
12z European Ensemble model 12-2-2018
A warm signal showing up the week of December 9 with the greatest departures from normal covering much of Canada, but still looks plenty warm for the northern Plains, upper Midwest and Great Lakes as well. Cooler than average temps for the southern U.S. More or less a classic El Nino type pattern setting up after this week, but for how long? At least some of the long range computer models show a flip to a colder pattern again later this month.
Note: Normal temperatures for the Northland from Dec 10-15 are generally in the low 20s with normal lows mainly in the single digits — Could be looking at daytime highs well into the 30s, maybe some 40s with overnight lows in the 20s. Record warmth or a top 5 highest max or min temp is certainly possible for some locations in the Northland from Dec 10 to 15 per model data.
A total of 189 severe weather reports in the U.S. the last 2 days (Nov 30-Dec 1)
Blue=Damaging wind reports
Green=Large hail reports
The focus for severe weather shifted into Illinois on Saturday with close to 2 dozen tornado reports on December 1!
Temperature departure map for the week of November 25, 2018 — Most of the Northland had below average temperatures again last week with the exception to this in a small area of northern Minnesota where average temps were near to slightly above normal (Yellow and orange colors on map)
Precipitation departure map for the week of November 25, 2018 — Below average precip for most of the Northland except in far northern areas (Green colors on map)
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
November 25 through December 1, 2018
High Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/25: 25 F/-5 degrees below normal
11/26: 19 F/-11 degrees below normal
11/27: 20 F/-9 degrees below normal
11/28: 26 F/-3 degrees below normal
11/29: 28 F/Normal
11/30: 30 F/+2 degrees above normal
12/1: 32 F/+5 degrees above normal
Low Temperature/Departure from Normal
11/25: 12 F/-5 degrees below normal
11/26: 10 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/27: 10 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/28: 6 F/-9 degrees below normal
11/29: 24 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/30: 28 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/1: 26 F/+12 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of Nov 25: 21.1 degrees (-0.8 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.12 inches
Normal: 0.40 inches
Departure: -0.28 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 25, 2018
Temperature: 20.8 degrees
Departure: -2.8 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.12 inches
Departure: -0.19 inches below normal
Heating Degree Day Information for November 2018
HDD=Heating Degree Days
Total number of HDD: 1356
Departure: +183 above normal
International Falls, Minnesota
Total number of HDD: 1326
Departure: +142 above normal
Total number of HDD: 1247
Departure: +159 above normal
Total number of HDD: 1233
Departure: +186 above normal
Total number of HDD: 1170
Departure: +162 above normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Another overcast day with gusty northerly winds. Low pressure has moved into the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon with high pressure to our northwest, flow between the low and high continues to be out of the north across our area today with weak cold air advection occurring over the upper Midwest. Highs today not bad for early December, ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s, pretty much what our normal highs are for December 2, but with the clouds and gusty winds, it didn’t feel too nice outside.
The low to our SE continued to bring some light system snow and lake enhanced snow to the South Shore and other areas of northwest Wisconsin today, while it was mainly dry in northern Minnesota.
Snow to continue tonight across portions of northwest Wisconsin with the heavier snowfall most likely along the South Shore, including northern parts of Bayfield, Ashland and Iron counties where another 2 to 4 inches of snow could accumulate tonight. The remainder of our area should be dry tonight. Mostly cloudy skies, few breaks in the clouds could develop later on. Lows in the teens and 20s with single digits possible in northern Minnesota if skies clear enough.
High pressure settles into the upper Midwest for Monday, and this might be enough to help produce some much needed sunshine at least for some of us, but overall it still looks like a mostly cloudy or partly sunny kind of day. Highs Monday in the 20s.
Keeping an eye on a midweek system which could bring a brief burst of snow to the area but it doesn’t look like it would be a lot of snow.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for December 3
Sunrise Monday: 7:35 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:21 PM CST