Updated storm track map
18z GEFS model 12-24-18
All 20 members of the GEFS model show at least around 6 inches or more than 6 inches of snow falling across the Northland between Wednesday night and Friday.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop (lower-level) from Monday, December 24, 2018
The storm that could hit us later this week has FINALLY moved ashore into northern California and Oregon this Monday afternoon — Now we watch it pass through the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday, then it moves out onto the southern/central Plains on Thursday.
Storm Timeline for Duluth
…Two Part Storm Possible…
•Snow begins Wednesday evening or Wednesday overnight with snow continuing into Thursday morning. The snow could mix with or change to sleet or freezing rain at times on Thursday.
•Some snow continues from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. The snow could become heavy at times Thursday night, but there is uncertainty on where the 2nd band of snow sets up as the main storm lifts NE into the upper Midwest Thursday into Friday morning.
•At the very least I’m expecting 3 to 5 inches of snow in Duluth from Wednesday night through Friday morning, however, there is a chance that we get upwards of 12 inches of snow depending on where the low tracks later this week, and where the heavier bands of snow set up.
•Model guidance differs in regards to the storm track and where the heavy snow sets up for Thursday into Friday morning. The GFS and German Icon models have the heaviest snow south/southeast of Duluth, while the NAM and Euro models show the axis of heavy snow setting up farther west, affecting much of central and northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Note: Now that the storm has moved ashore this Monday evening will start to see the computer models converge on a solution over the next 24 hours.
-Still have some concerns on what the snow ratios will be for Thursday and Thursday night with a milder airmass moving in, there is a chance will see snow ratios lower below 10:1, more in the 5:1 to 8:1 range which means that this could be a wet snowfall, and this could lead to lower snowfall amounts compared to what model guidance has been and continues to show.
-There also appears to be a real possibility that will see the snow mix with or change to freezing rain, sleet and perhaps even some rain during the day Thursday, especially over parts of northwest Wisconsin, but this threat also exists farther west into eastern Minnesota, up to Duluth and Two Harbors…Should the snow switch over to a mix of precip, then that could also result in lower snowfall totals.
-Bottom line is that it’s going to snow later this week with at least several inches of accumulation likely across the Northland. But there is still some uncertainty on the storm track and where the axis of heaviest snow will set up from Thursday into Friday morning.
The potential is there for a major winter storm to impact parts of the Northland!