Source: http://www.pivotalweather.com/
…Winter Storm Watch… in effect from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for northeast Minnesota, including the Interstate 35 corridor, entire North Shore, Arrowhead, Iron Range, Brainerd Lakes and Borderland areas.
Travel could become very difficult, including for the Thursday morning/evening commutes, and the Friday morning commute.
Note: Additional winter weather headlines could be issued for parts of northwest Wisconsin, while the winter storm watch area is either upgraded to a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory during the next 24 hours.
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
12z NAM model 12-25-18
Strong upward motion in the atmosphere combined with steep Mid Level Lapse Rates, and some areas of instability could result in some Thundersnow in parts of the Northland late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
00z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 12-25-18
80 to nearly 100% chance for snowfall to exceed 6 inches with this late week storm in a swath from northeast South Dakota through central and northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Note: The Euro model remains somewhat colder which is why they show a risk of heavy snow also affecting northwest Wisconsin.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
00z Euro Ensemble model (EPS) 12-25-18
Snow totals could approach or exceed a Foot in a swath from northeast South Dakota through a portion of central Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin per Euro Ensemble model.
Tuesday morning (Dec 25) update
Things remain on track for potentially a powerful winter storm to impact the Northland.
•Snow begins Wednesday evening, the snow will move in from the south or southwest.
•Snow continues Thursday through Friday morning. Before it looked like there could be a lull in snowfall at some point on Thursday, but model guidance has been trending away from that solution, so it looks like the snow could be fairly steady from Wednesday night all the way through Friday morning.
•The snow could become more convective in nature late Thursday afternoon/evening with bursts of heavy snow showers embedded within a larger area of light or moderate snow.
•Snow could mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain or some rain at times on Thursday, mostly over northwest Wisconsin, but the NAM model remains a warmer solution and shows this mixed potential extending as far west as Duluth.
•I’ll likely make my first snowfall map for this storm this evening, but right now I’m leaning toward snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across much of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin with a narrow corridor in this band where snow totals of 10 to 15 inches will be possible.
•As for the wind…East to northeast winds will ramp up Wednesday night, 10 to 20 mph, increasing further on Thursday with gusts from 20 to around 30 mph. Breezy E-NE winds should continue Thursday night as well. Areas of blowing snow are likely Thursday into Friday morning.
More updates later
Merry Christmas
Tim
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