Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-2-19
Note: See record highs list below
Our normal highs in early January in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are in the mid to upper teens. Forecast highs for the next few days around 30 to 38 degrees!
Source: https://weather.cod.edu
18z NAM-Nest model 1-2-19
Simulated radar forecast from 6 AM Thursday to Noon Thursday.
Another disturbance zips across the area on Thursday, but with a warmer airmass in place, we could see a brief period of mixed precipitation pass through parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday morning thru early Thursday afternoon.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-2-19
Note: Looks pretty dry around here through Saturday, but there is a system I’m keeping an eye on during the Sunday night-Monday time frame, this one could bring some snow to parts of the Northland depending on how it tracks and the amount of phasing we see between a northern low and southern low. Something to watch during the next few days.
Euro ensemble model guidance (shown below) has the greatest potential for 3″ plus snow totals in far northeast Minnesota early next week (blue colors on map) other models show a larger swath of accumulating snow affecting much of the Northland early next week. Stay tuned.
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-2-19
Very little change in the overall weather pattern with an active storm track favoring the Pacific northwest and across the southern U.S.; while for us in the Northland precipitation totals are expected to be close to normal thru mid month. Dry areas across the northern Rockies and over the central/eastern Great Lakes and over parts of the northeast U.S. (Brown colored areas on map)
Note: The big storm we got in the Northland just after Christmas, and the other snow event that hit us on December 31 really deviated from how the pattern has been for the most part since November!
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
December 2018 Temperature Departure map — A warm month across the Northland with the average temperatures running some 4 to nearly 7 degrees above normal!
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
December 2018 Precipitation Departure map — Most of the Northland had above average precipitation totals last month, with the greatest departures from normal along parts of the North Shore of Lake Superior (Blue and purple colors on map)
Source: https://hprcc.unl.edu
December 2018 Temperature Departure map for the U.S.
Outside of New England and portions of the central Rockies which had below average temperatures last month (Green colors on map) The rest of the lower 48 had above average temperatures with the greatest departures from normal represented by the orange and red colors on map.
January Climate Averages for Duluth, Minnesota
Temperature: 10.2 degrees
Snowfall: 19.4 inches
Precipitation: 0.96 inches
Normal high on the 1st: 19 degrees
Normal high on the 31st: 20 degrees
Normal low on the 1st: 3 degrees
Normal low on the 31st: 2 degrees
Warmest January on record: 23.7 degrees set in 2006
Coldest January on record: -7.2 degrees set in 1912
Snowiest January on record: 46.8 inches set in 1969
Least snowiest January on record: 2.0 inches set in 1920
Wettest January on record: 4.70 inches set in 1969
Driest January on record: 0.13 inches set in 2008
Average number of subzero nights: 14 — Greatest is 27 nights set in 1929, tied in 1982.
Average number of days with snowfall of at least 0.1 inch: 13
Average number of days with snowfall of at least 1.0 inch: 5
Astronomical Data for January
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:54 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:34 AM CST
Sunset on the 1st: 4:31 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st: 5:10 PM CST
December 2018 Climate Summary for Duluth, Minnesota
Average temperature: 21.6 degrees
Normal: 14.8 degrees
Departure: +6.8 degrees above normal
Note: December 2018 was the 20th warmest December in station history. Warmest December was in 1877 with an average temperature of 32.7 degrees.
Highest temperature: 44 F on the 15th
Lowest temperature: -9 F on the 29th
8 days with a high temperature of at least 32 F (Normal is 7 days)
3 days with a high temperature of at least 40 F (Normal is 2 days)
3 subzero nights (Normal is 10 nights)
Total precipitation: 1.77 inches
Normal: 1.21 inches
Departure: +0.56 inches above normal
Number of days with at least 0.01 inch of precipitation: 7
Number of days with at least 0.10 inch of precipitation: 3
Number of days with at least 0.50 inch of precipitation: 1
Number of days with at least 1.00 inch of precipitation: 1
Greatest daily precipitation total: 1.19 inches on the 27th
Total snowfall: 19.8 inches
Normal: 17.7 inches
Departure: +2.1 inches above normal
Greatest daily snowfall: 12.2 inches on the 27th
Number of days with snowfall of at least 0.1 inch: 10
Number of days with snowfall of at least 1.0 inch: 2
December 2018 Climate Summaries from around the Northland
International Falls, Minnesota
Average temperature: 15.6 degrees
Departure: +5.8 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 0.83 inches
Departure: +0.02 inches above normal
Total snowfall: 11.8 inches
Departure: -3.2 inches below normal
Brainerd, Minnesota
Average temperature: 20.8 degrees
Departure: +5.5 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 1.38 inches
Departure: +0.57 inches above normal
Total snowfall: 17.7 inches
Departure: +8.0 inches above normal
Hibbing, Minnesota
Average temperature: 15.4 degrees
Departure: +4.1 degrees above normal
Ashland, Wisconsin
Average temperature: 24.1 degrees
Departure: +5.6 degrees above normal
December 2018 Highlights
•Brainerd, Minnesota — 12th warmest December in station history. Warmest December on record was in 1931 and 1939 with an average temperature of 25.9 degrees.
•Brainerd, Minnesota — 3rd snowiest December in station history, and 3rd wettest December in station history. Record snowiest December was in 1968 with 29.1 inches of snow. Record wettest December was in 1968 with 2.34 inches of precipitation.
•Ashland, Wisconsin — Tied for 13th warmest December in station history. Warmest December on record was in 2015 with an average temperature of 30.0 degrees.
Record Highs for the next few days
Based on projected forecasts, it looks like Friday will be our best chance at tying or setting a new record high temperature for some locations in the Northland.
January 3:
Duluth, Minnesota: 42 degrees set in 1889
International Falls, Minnesota: 41 degrees set in 2007
Ashland, Wisconsin: 43 degrees set in 1927
Brainerd, Minnesota: 43 degrees set in 1964
Hibbing, Minnesota: 40 degrees set in 1984
January 4:
Duluth, Minnesota: 38 degrees set in 1891, tied in 1898 and 1992
International Falls, Minnesota: 37 degrees set in 2007
Ashland, Wisconsin: 41 degrees set in 2007
Brainerd, Minnesota: 44 degrees set in 1962, tied in 1984
Hibbing, Minnesota: 37 degrees set in 2012
January 5:
Duluth, Minnesota: 48 degrees set in 2012
International Falls, Minnesota: 46 degrees set in 2012
Ashland, Wisconsin: 46 degrees set in 2012
Brainerd, Minnesota: 51 degrees set in 2012
Hibbing, Minnesota: 47 degrees set in 2012
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
We had some pesky bed feathers (Fluffy flakes) fall out of the sky today thanks to an upper level disturbance which moved through the area. Little to no snow accumulation today. Temperatures are going in the right direction after a few days in the freezer! Highs today were generally in the low to mid teens, and in the upper single digits in far northern Minnesota.
Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are expected for tonight with some lingering flurries mainly this evening. Will all stay above zero tonight with temperatures holding nearly steady in the single digits and teens through the night.
A warm front pushes through the area on Thursday with a strong surge of warm air advection moving into the upper Midwest. 850mb temperatures late this Wednesday afternoon across the Northland ranged from -10 to -12C, but by Thursday afternoon 850mb temperatures will range from +2 to around +5C. With the warm front moving through we could see a brief period of light mixed precipitation on Thursday, otherwise partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with highs mainly in the 30s.
Friday has a chance to be very warm, but temperatures might be held down a bit due to the deeper snow pack we have now compared to a few weeks ago when snow depths were much less. Although I’ve seen it before when these Chinooks get going where temperatures warm significantly even with a deep snow pack so will just have to wait and see how this all plays out. Friday’s high temperatures are forecast to be in the 30s, but some of us could climb into the 40s if we get enough mixing and sunshine.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 3
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Thursday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:33 PM CST
Tim
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