Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z NAM model 1-3-19
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z NAM model 1-3-19
Precipitable water forecast valid from Sunday morning to late Sunday night — The system for Sunday night and Monday looks like it will have a lot of moisture to work with represented by the darker green and blue colors on the map which indicates that forecast PWAT values will be running some 2 to 4 standard deviations above normal for early January. Will see if this trend holds in coming days, or if the amount of moisture decreases as this event gets closer.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z NAM model 1-3-19
Upper level wind forecast (250mb) valid from Saturday morning to late Sunday night — Powerful winds aloft blast NE into the upper Midwest on Saturday (160+ knots)
Source: https://weathermodels.com
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 1-3-19
Temperature Anomaly forecast valid from 6 AM Friday, January 4 to 6 AM Friday, January 11. Overall its a warmer than normal pattern thru most of next week across the northern Plains and upper Midwest with the greatest departures from average represented by the darker red, charcoal and white colors on map.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A warm day across the Northland with highs in the 30s with International Falls just one degree shy of 40 this afternoon.
Note: Only 15 or around 10% of January 3s on record dating back to 1875 have had a high temperature of 32 F or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota, the most recent one was in 2007 with a high of 35 F, which also happened to be the high temp today (Jan 3, 2019) So now we’re up to 16 January 3s on record with a high of 32 F or warmer!
Even though it was a mild day, no record highs were broken today, although International Falls had their 2nd highest maximum temperature on record for January 3 with a high today of 39 F (Record high is 41 F set in 2007)
There was a bit of mixed precipitation in parts of far northern Minnesota earlier today as a warm front moved through, otherwise it was a dry afternoon with increasing amounts of sun.
We could see areas of low clouds and fog develop over parts of the Northland through Saturday, but if we can avoid this, then we’re looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies with no weather concerns through Saturday.
Friday’s airmass doesn’t look much different from today’s with 850mb temperatures holding in the +2 to +5C range, but mixing on Friday doesn’t look as good as what we had today, so will see how temperatures respond to this. Regardless we should see widespread 30s once again, with perhaps a few spots getting into the low 40s!
Note: The record high for January 4 at Duluth, Minnesota is 38 degrees set in 1891, 1898 and most recently in 1992. We could get very close to breaking this record on Friday.
Record highs for January 4 at both Hibbing and International Falls are 37 degrees, and those records are also in jeopardy on Friday.
A cold front sinks south into northern Minnesota Friday morning but gets booted back north as a warm front before it comes crashing south as a cold front on Saturday, and as that cold front heads south it could help produce a little bit of mixed precipitation across northern Minnesota late Friday night or Saturday morning but this doesn’t look like it would be a very big deal.
A potentially more impactful system could affect the area Sunday night-Monday. Some phasing looks to take place between a low to our NW and one to our S with a good stream of moisture pushing into the upper Midwest ahead of these lows. Accumulating snow is looking more likely over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for Sunday night and Monday with several inches of snow possible over parts of the area. Model data has been consistent in showing temperatures both at the surface and aloft remaining cold enough for precipitation to fall as snow, if this system hits us late this weekend. Stay tuned.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 4
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Friday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:34 PM CST
Tim
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