Here’s my preliminary snowfall forecast for Sunday night through Monday.
•Computer models are in good agreement on this system
•Bulk of the snow falls in roughly a 12-hour window Sunday night through Monday morning.
•Monday morning commute could be difficult due to the potential snowfall.
•Snow will probably be a little on the wet/heavy side, and temperatures Monday afternoon when the snow ends will likely climb to around the freezing mark, or a few degrees above freezing!
•Winter weather headlines will likely be issued sometime over the weekend unless snowfall amounts trend lower.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z NAM model 1-4-19
System for Sunday night-Monday morning will have a lot of moisture with PWATS or Precipitable water values of 0.50 to around 0.75 inches across the Northland — This would be around 2 standard deviations above normal for early January — See image below.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
18z NAM model 1-4-19
Simulated radar forecast from 6 PM Sunday to 12 PM Monday.
Watch how the snow blossoms Sunday night (blue colors on map) But this will be a quick hitting storm with snow ending from W-E by Monday afternoon.
Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
12z GEFS model 1-4-19
One thing forecasters do is look at model trends. Note how the precip totals have increased in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for the system for Sunday night-Monday with the 0.50 inch area of precip (blue color on map) shifting farther west over the last 4 model runs. So the trend with this late weekend system is certainly toward a greater amount of precip/snowfall.
Source: https://lab.weathermodels.com
12z GEFS model 1-4-19
Snowfall amounts using a 10:1 ratio.
Source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Here are the two lows that will impact the Northland later this weekend. The first low moves east out of western Canada while a southern low over western Kansas lifts northeast. We won’t get much phasing of the two lows, but a nice supply of moisture will get pulled north into the upper Midwest ahead of both lows which will help cause our snow for Sunday night.
Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Finally building up a nice snow pack in parts of Minnesota after the storm late last week, and the one just a few days ago on Monday. Greatest snow depths are over the northern half of Minnesota, a lot less snow in southern Minnesota.
Climate Data for January 3, 2019
International Falls, Minnesota
2nd highest maximum temperature on record for January 3 with a high on Thursday of 39 degrees. The record high for January 3 is 41 degrees set in 2007.
Hibbing, Minnesota
Tied for 2nd highest maximum temperature on record for January 3 with a high on Thursday of 36 degrees. The record high for January 3 is 40 degrees set in 1984.
Brainerd, Minnesota
Tied for 3rd highest maximum temperature on record for January 3 with a high on Thursday of 38 degrees. The record high for January 3 is 43 degrees set in 1964.
Ashland, Wisconsin
Tied for 4th highest maximum temperature on record for January 3 with a high on Thursday of 38 degrees. The record high for January 3 is 43 degrees set in 1927.
***December 2018 Heating Degree Day Information***
Note: HDD=Heating Degree Days
The mild temperatures in December led to the number of heating degree days being well below average throughout the Northland.
Hibbing, Minnesota
Total number of HDD: 1528
Departure: -135 below normal
International Falls, Minnesota
Total number of HDD: 1527
Departure: -187 below normal
Brainerd, Minnesota
Total number of HDD: 1362
Departure: -178 below normal
Duluth, Minnesota
Total number of HDD: 1338
Departure: -218 below normal
Ashland, Wisconsin
Total number of HDD: 1261
Departure: -183 below normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A very mild day as our early January thaw continued today. Most of us had partly to mostly sunny skies today, but there was a small area of low clouds which developed for a few hours this morning-early this afternoon which impacted a small portion of eastern St. Louis, northern Lake and western Cook Counties in northeast Minnesota.
Highs today were generally in the mid to upper 30s with low to mid 40s reported in Ashland and Silver Bay. Note: Duluth, International Falls and Ashland all broke their daily record high temperatures for January 4. See list below…
*High of 40 F at Duluth (Old record was 38 F set in 1891, 1898 and 1992.
*High of 38 F at International Falls (Old record was 37 F set in 2007)
*High of 42 F at Ashland (Old record was 41 F set in 2007)
The airmass over our area hasn’t changed much since Thursday with 850mb temperatures this Friday afternoon in the +2 to +4C range.
A generally quiet night ahead under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Melting snow from today has added some moisture into the atmosphere so we could see some freezing fog or low clouds form later in the night.
A cold front will drop south through the Northland Saturday morning and we could see some patchy freezing drizzle or flurries develop mainly over northern Minnesota as this front moves through, otherwise we’re looking at mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies for Saturday with more mild temperatures with highs in the 30s, although we will get a nice push of cold air advection during the afternoon as 850mb temperatures fall to around -2 to -8C from south to north.
Note: It does look a tad windy on Saturday with W-NW winds potentially gusting to 20 to 30 mph.
A strong area of high pressure will pass north of the area on Sunday with low pressure approaching from the west. Winds will shift to the east in response to the approaching lows and the departing high. A few lake effect flurries are possible Sunday near Lake Superior as winds turn to the east.
Snow develops across the Northland Sunday night with a period of freezing drizzle possible Sunday evening due to a layer of warmer temperatures aloft (850mb temps of 0 to +2C) 850mb temps will fall later Sunday night with snow becoming the main P-Type. Lake enhanced/terrain enhanced snow looks likely late Sunday night into Monday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior with snow totals possibly reaching 6 to 10 inches.
Duluth, Minnesota climate normals for January 5
High: 19
Low: 2
Sunrise Saturday: 7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:35 PM CST
Tim
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