Multiple weather headlines in effect through Monday.
Pink=Winter storm warning
Purple=Winter weather advisory
A swath of about 6 to 10 inches of snow (locally higher amounts) are possible in the blizzard and winter storm warning areas, lesser amounts of snow in the advisory area. Gusty winds are also expected leading to whiteout and blizzard conditions from eastern North Dakota through parts of western and southern Minnesota.
Radar loop through 4:45 PM CST, Sunday, January 27, 2019.
Snow in blue; Mixed precip in pink; Rain in green.
Winter Weather Advisory (purple shaded area on map) for all of northwest Wisconsin, and for parts of northeast and east-central Minnesota.
Expiration times below
•Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties until 6 PM Monday.
•Cass, Crow Wing, Aitkin Counties until 6 AM Monday.
•Pine, Carlton, Southern St. Louis and Southern Lake Counties until 9 AM Monday.
•Douglas, Burnett, Washburn and Sawyer Counties until Noon Monday.
•Plan on slippery road conditions in the advisory area with snow covered roads. Visibilities will be reduced at times. The snow and slippery road conditions could impact the Monday morning commute.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts
Another night of dangerously cold wind chills across northeast Minnesota.
•Wind Chill Warning (Darker blue area on map) for Northern Lake and Cook Counties until Noon Monday. Wind chills as low as 50 below zero. Frostbite is possible on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.
•Wind chills in the advisory area ranging from 25 below to 40 below zero. Frostbite is possible on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight and Monday
Greatest amounts across far southern areas with 4 to 7 inches of snow possible roughly from Brainerd to Sandstone to Hayward.
Lesser amounts farther north.
Some threat for greater amounts along the North Shore of Lake Superior due to a period of lake enhanced/lake effect snow late tonight into Monday morning, but for now I’m sticking with a range of 2 to 4 inches of snow.
Note: Model trends from Sunday afternoon have been backing off on how far east the snow will get which makes sense given the arctic/dry airmass that seems to be firmly entrenched now across the Northland. The HRRR and NAM models show less snow compared to the Euro and GFS models.
For Duluth and Superior
Potential for 2 to 4 inches of snow through Monday afternoon with patchy blowing snow possible overnight. Snow should begin later this evening or during the overnight hours.
18z NAM-WRF model 1-27-19
The 18z model run from this afternoon is picking up on the dry/arctic air preventing the snow from getting much farther north than the Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota tonight.
There should still be some lake effect snow tonight through Monday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior, especially north of Duluth, then will see the lake effect snow bands push south over the lake on Monday as winds turn to the N-NW.
Could also see a brief band of snow push E-SE through the area later Monday afternoon/evening as the Polar Vortex/arctic front approaches from the NW.
18z NAM model 1-27-19
Check out these forecast wind chill temperatures from Tuesday morning through early Thursday morning. Potential for widespread wind chills of 40 below to around 60 below zero across the upper Midwest from Tuesday through Thursday morning, with the worse conditions looking to be from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
18z NAM model 1-27-19
You don’t see this every day. The mother load of cold air aka Polar Vortex dropping straight south out of Canada and into the upper Midwest this week. The upper low is expected to pass through Minnesota on Tuesday, exiting to the SE by Tuesday night. 500mb heights underneath the upper low will drop to around 4920-4950 Decameters, incredible!
Departure from normal temperature for the week of January 20 — Well below average temps across the entire Northland last week, roughly 6 to 15 degrees below normal!
Precipitation departure map for the week of January 20 — Most of northern Minnesota had near to above normal precipitation last week while parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin saw near to below normal precipitation (yellow shaded area on map)
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
January 20-26, 2019
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
1/20: 5 F/-14 degrees below normal
1/21: 16 F/-3 degrees below normal
1/22: 19 F/Normal
1/23: 17 F/-2 degrees below normal
1/24: 15 F/-4 degrees below normal
1/25: -5 F/-24 degrees below normal
1/26: 5 F/-14 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
1/20: -20 F/-21 degrees below normal
1/21: -5 F/-6 degrees below normal
1/22: 3 F/+2 degrees above normal
1/23: 7 F/+6 degrees above normal
1/24: -15 F/-16 degrees below normal
1/25: -21 F/-22 degrees below normal
1/26: -19 F/-20 degrees below normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of January 20: 0.1 degrees (-9.9 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.33 inches
Normal: 0.19 inches
Departure: +0.14 inches above normal
State average for Minnesota for the week of January 20, 2019
Temperature: 0.6 degrees
Departure: -10.8 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.15 inches
Departure: -0.02 inches below normal
Low temperature reports from Sunday morning, January 27, 2019
Kabetogama, MN: -49 F
5 NW Ash Lake, MN: -48 F
Babbitt, MN: -46 F
5 E Seagull Lake, MN: -46 F
2 E Celina, MN: -46 F
International Falls, MN: -46 F
2 S Brimson, MN: -45 F
Embarrass, MN: -45 F
Crane Lake, MN: -44 F
2 NNW Cotton, MN: -44 F
3 N Butternut, WI: -41 F
Gunflint Lake, MN: -41 F
Littlefork, MN: -40 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -39 F
3 WNW Twig, MN: -39 F
Cook, MN: -38 F
Orr, MN: -38 F
Cass Lake, MN: -35 F
Longville, MN: -35 F
3 E Wright, MN: -34 F
Aitkin, MN: -33 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) -33 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -33 F
7 WNW Minong, WI: -33 F
Walker, MN: -32 F
Silver Bay, MN: -31 F
Brainerd, MN: -30 F
4 SSE South Range, WI: -30 F
2 ENE Oliver, WI: -30 F
3 NNE Hermantown, MN: -29 F
Cloquet, MN: -29 F
Moose Lake, MN: -29 F
Two Harbors, MN: -27 F
1 ESE Esko, MN: -26 F
Hayward, WI: -26 F
2 WNW Duluth, MN: -25 F
Siren, WI: -25 F
Superior Airport: -25 F
Hinckley, MN: -24 F
2 SW Proctor, MN: -24 F
Glidden, WI: -23 F
Duluth Airport: -23 F
Washburn, WI: -21 F
Ashland, WI: -18 F
Lowest wind chill reports from Sunday morning, January 27, 2019
Grand Marais, MN (Airport) -57 F
International Falls, MN: -54 F
Cloquet, MN: -46 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: -46 F
Walker, MN: -46 F
Superior Airport: -42 F
Duluth Airport: -41 F
Talk about a pattern change recently!
The average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota from January 1 through 15: 20.2 degrees (+10.0 degrees above normal)
The average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota from January 16 through 26: -0.6 degrees (-10.6 degrees below normal)
Note: This month is still running above average by 1.2 degrees (thru the 26th) but that won’t last too much longer.
Record cold in the Northland this morning, Sunday, January 27, 2019
International Falls, Minnesota
New record low: -46 degrees
Old record: -36 degrees set in 1915, 1955 and 1966
Note: The last time the temperature dropped to 45 below or lower at International Falls was on January 21, 2011.
New record low: -39 degrees
Old record: -32 degrees set in 1966 and 1976
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Warm air advection is now occurring this afternoon as a strong clipper moves across the northern Plains helping to kick last night’s arctic blast off to the east. 850mb temperatures late this Sunday afternoon ranged from +10C in far southwest South Dakota to -28C in far northeast Minnesota to -38C over eastern Ontario province, incredible temperature gradient today.
Temperatures this afternoon across the Northland were in the single digits below to around zero, which is a good 20 to 40 degrees warmer compared to where we started the day at.
The focus for tonight remains on the clipper which will track SE out of North Dakota, reaching the Iowa-Illinois border by daybreak. This storm will produce a swath of heavy snow tonight from eastern North Dakota through western-southern portions of Minnesota. The northern edge of this system will affect western-southern portions of the Northland with a light to moderate snowfall event expected tonight.
Lows tonight will range from the teens and 20s below in far northern Minnesota to the single digits below to single digits above zero elsewhere. Highs on Monday will range from around zero to 10 above.
Light snow and flurries are possible on Monday as tonight’s clipper exits to the SE while an arctic front moves through later in the day.
…Concerning the lake effect snow potential for the North Shore… Temperatures are plenty cold enough with up to a 34 degree temperature difference from the surface to 850mb with those 850mb temps in the -20 to -35C range over the lake. Winds will be out of the east tonight, then shift to the northeast Monday morning, then shift to the north by Monday afternoon. The changing wind directions should prevent any lake effect snow bands from lingering over one particular location for very long, but even 1-3 hours underneath a lake effect snow band could result in a quick several inches of fluffy snow. For what it’s worth the mesoscale models from Sunday show the greatest potential for several inches of snow occurring northeast of Duluth, mainly from around Two Harbors toward Grand Marais. It will be windy tonight into Monday morning with easterly gusts to around 25 mph so some blowing snow could develop later in the night into Monday morning, especially for areas that do get some new snow.
The arctic blast for Tuesday through Thursday is still on. Not much has changed over the last few days with a period of potentially dangerous historic type cold impacting the upper Midwest. Gusty winds will accompany the bitter cold temps which will make it feel even worse if you have to be outside, which probably isn’t advised unless you really need to be. We’re looking at daytime highs ranging from around 5 below to 20 below Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 20s and 30s below with some 40s below possible especially Wednesday night.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 28
Sunrise Monday: 7:38 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:06 PM CST