12z European ensemble model (EPS) 1-28-19
Wind Chill Warning (Blue shaded area on map)
•Location: All of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
•Timing: 9 PM this evening to 9 AM Thursday for all but Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties in northwest Wisconsin, here the wind chill warning is in effect from 4 PM Tuesday to 9 AM Thursday.
•Wind Chills: 40 below to 65 below zero. The coldest wind chills are expected from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
•Impacts: The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 5 minutes.
Note: A wind chill warning is issued when the combination of wind and very cold air create dangerous wind chills. Hypothermia can set in quickly, which may lead to death, and frostbite can develop within minutes. Take action to protect yourself from the cold. Cover up, dress warmly and in layers, and limit your time outdoors. Travel with extra blankets or additional clothing in case of vehicle trouble.
Wind Chill Advisory (Light blue shaded area on map)
•Location: Portions of northwest Wisconsin.
•Timing: Midnight tonight to 4 PM Tuesday
•Wind Chills: 25 below to 40 below zero.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, January 28, 2019.
Here comes the upper low (Polar vortex) dropping south into central Canada as it passes just west of Hudson Bay Canada today.
18z NAM 1-28-19
Here’s a model forecast showing the progression of the upper low (polar vortex) as it drops S-SE through Minnesota on Tuesday.
18z GFS model 1-28-19
The 2 PVU forecast shows the white fuzzball dropping south through parts of Minnesota on Tuesday. Per AFD out of the Twin Cities NWS , the Tropopause will “descend down to 875mb” on Tuesday which is astonishingly low, and a historic event!
18z NAM model 1-28-19
18z NAM-Nest model 1-28-19
Gusty winds will accompany the frigid temperatures through Thursday morning. On average we’re looking at wind speeds from 10 to 20 mph, but wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph are possible. Not only will these winds produce potentially life-threatening wind chill values at times through Thursday morning, but they will also cause areas of blowing snow at times.
18z NAM-WRF model 1-28-19
Wind chills will get progressively colder later tonight as arctic air blows into the Northland. There will be little improvement through the day Tuesday, in fact wind chills could remain in the 25 below to 45 below range even during the afternoon before even colder wind chills develop Tuesday night. This is dangerous stuff!
…Climate Data for January 27, 2019…
4th lowest maximum temperature on record for January 27 with a high on Sunday of 0 degrees. The coldest high temp on record for January 27 is -3 degrees set in 2014.
5th lowest minimum temperature on record for January 27 with a low on Sunday of -31 degrees. The record low for January 27 is -34 degrees set in 1976.
Note: Low temperature of -40 F at Hibbing, Minnesota on January 27, 2019 was the first time since January 16, 2009 with a low temperature of -40 F or colder.
Snowfall reports for January 27-28, 2019
1 N Fort Ripley, MN: 5.3 inch
5 NW Walker, MN: 5.0 inch
4 ESE Casino, MN: 4.8 inch
6 S Whipholt, MN: 3.5 inch
1 SSW Grantsburg, WI: 3.0 inch
7 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 2.8 inch
3 SSW Bruno, MN: 2.0 inch
2 NNW Gary New Duluth, MN: 2.0 inch
6 NE Hertel, WI: 1.7 inch
1 W Solon Springs, WI: 1.5 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 1.5 inch
Duluth Airport: 1.4 inch
Kettle River, MN: 1.3 inch
Record cold is possible in Duluth mid-week, see list below
Record low: -35 degrees set in 1994
Record low high: -11 degrees set in 1887
Record low: -33 degrees set in 1982
Record low high: -9 degrees set in 1971
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Arctic front blows through tonight and it’s all downhill from there. Will get some light snow especially this evening as that front comes through with accumulations generally of an inch or less.
The airmass over the Northland late this Monday afternoon consists of 850mb temperatures of around -20 to -26C with 500mb heights of around 516 Decameters. By Tuesday afternoon, the 850mb temps fall into the -30 to around -40C range while 500mb heights fall to between 490-495 Decameters, very impressive!
Note: The lowest 500mb height on record for January 29 on the 12z sounding at International Falls is 504 Decameters, this record should be broken on Tuesday. And the coldest 850mb temp on record for January 29 on the 12z sounding at International Falls is -29C, this record should also be smashed on Tuesday. So the airmass that moves in on Tuesday really is historic as it will be breaking records not only in the Northland but elsewhere across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes! Weather nerds will be throwing parties!
Lows across the Northland will range from the teens below to around 30 below tonight with highs Tuesday ranging from around 10 below to 20 below which is incredibly cold for daytime highs!
Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night are expected to be in the teens, 20s and 30s below with a few of the typical cold spots around the area possibly falling into the 40s or even 50s below! Note: The coldest temps are expected Wednesday night/Thursday morning when wind speeds are the lightest.
The good news is that we should warm-up significantly this weekend with potential for highs on Saturday reaching or exceeding the freezing mark! The bad news is this warm-up looks brief as more cold air returns either on Sunday or after Sunday. It also looks like there could be a period of active weather setting up somewhere across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes ~February 3rd through 6th but that’s still off in the distance so will worry about that a few days from now.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for January 29
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:37 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:07 PM CST