Here’s my preliminary snowfall map for Sunday night and Monday
•Greatest amounts of snow across northern Minnesota.
•Lesser amounts of snow farther south including in the Twin Ports, east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin.
•A wintry mix of precipitation including sleet, freezing rain and snow is most likely over northwest Wisconsin, but there is a chance for a wintry mix farther west including in the Twin Ports and east-central Minnesota early Monday morning.
•Some ice accumulation is expected late Sunday night-Monday morning mainly over northwest Wisconsin with ice accumulations of 0.10 inch to around 0.25 inches possible.
For Duluth and Superior
Snowfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches from late Sunday night through early Monday afternoon, so yes I’ve cut snow totals a bit for the Twin Ports (was thinking 3-6 inches on Friday) A chance for some sleet or freezing rain Sunday night-early Monday morning. Breezy east winds 15 to 20 mph, gusts to around 30 mph Sunday night-Monday morning. Note: The Monday morning commute could be impacted by the snow or wintry mix of precipitation.
18z NAM-WRF model
Snow and mixed precipitation is expected to develop across the Northland Sunday night, continuing into Monday morning before tapering off from west to east Monday afternoon.
Snow in blue
Mixed precip (Freezing rain and sleet) in pink and purple
Low pressure is forecast to track northeast out of northwestern Kansas Sunday evening, reaching the southeast Minnesota-southwest Wisconsin border area Monday morning, then moving into eastern Upper Michigan by Monday evening — This system should bring some snow and a wintry mix to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Sunday night into Monday.
Winter Weather Advisory (Purple shaded area on map) for freezing drizzle for parts of northwest Wisconsin from 9 PM tonight to 10 AM Sunday.
•Ice accumulations of up to one-tenth of an inch are possible in the advisory area.
•Expect slippery stretches on area roads late tonight and Sunday morning.
Goes-16 visible satellite loop from Saturday, February 2, 2019.
A widespread area of low clouds with some fog and drizzle has been lifting slowly north today out of southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin — Will see this area of stratus, patchy fog and freezing drizzle continue to lift north into eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Saturday, February 2, 2019.
The big story are the powerful storms over the Pacific today, one of those storms is moving into California, the other one is farther upstream, but is blasting toward the SE.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common across the area today with an area of stratus (low clouds) pushing west off Lake Superior as easterly winds developed along the North Shore. Highs today weren’t bad at all for early February and ranged from around 30 degrees in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin to the upper teens to upper 20s across the rest of the area. Note: A larger area of low clouds with patchy fog and drizzle has been lifting slowly north this afternoon out of south-central Minnesota and central Wisconsin.
RAP model analysis from 3 PM Saturday showed a W-SW flow aloft covering the upper Midwest with continued strong warm air advection today with late afternoon 850mb temperatures ranging from -4C at International Falls, Minnesota to +6C at Brainerd to +10C across southern Minnesota.
A frontal boundary will be draped from southern Minnesota to north-central Wisconsin through Sunday morning before this front gets pushed farther south/east during the day Sunday. Moisture will continue to pool near this front tonight, and this will cause an increase in low clouds along with some fog and freezing drizzle across parts of the Northland through Sunday morning. Will also have a threat for patchy light lake effect snow or freezing drizzle tonight into Sunday morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior with east winds coming off the lake.
A wide range in lows tonight from around zero in far northeast Minnesota to the 20s in eastern Minnesota and southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday ranging from the lower 20s to middle 30s (warmest temps around the Hayward Lakes area in northwest Wisconsin)
Mostly cloudy skies are expected on Sunday with areas of fog, flurries, freezing drizzle and drizzle.
Low pressure approaching from the western High Plains should cause an increase in precipitation over the Northland Sunday night, especially later in the night, with snow to the north and a mixture of precipitation elsewhere.
850mb temps of 0 to +2C will certainly support a wintry mix of precipitation late Sunday night-Monday morning from eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, colder 850mb temps across northern Minnesota, and this is where an all snow event is most likely to occur.
Note: I’m still not very impressed with Sunday night’s system. Doesn’t really come together until it gets east of our area, despite an overall decent storm track for a good winter storm in our area, with the low tracking from northwest Kansas toward northeast Wisconsin. Still looks like will see two main areas of precipitation, one across northern Minnesota, the other in northern Wisconsin, in between will see some precip, but shouldn’t be very significant.
Snow and wintry mix will come to an end from W-E Monday afternoon as low pressure heads into the central/eastern Great Lakes.
…Looking ahead… We have more chances for some snow mid to late next week with an inverted type trough event possibly impacting the Northland (Feb 6-7)
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 3
Sunrise Sunday: 7:31 AM CST
Sunset Sunday: 5:15 PM CST