12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 2-3-19
Temperatures aloft, at ~5,000 feet will be warm enough tonight, ranging from around 0 to +3C for sleet and freezing rain from east-central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.
Check out these temperatures from late this Sunday morning! Nearly a 45 degree temperature difference across Minnesota, ranging from -2 F at Hallock (Northwest Minnesota) to 42 F at Rochester (Southeast Minnesota)
Radar loop ending at 3:15 PM Sunday, February 3, 2019
Snow in blue, wintry mix in pink. Will see precipitation expand farther east into Minnesota and Wisconsin tonight.
We have snow and an icy mix of precipitation on the way!
•Snow for northern Minnesota, while warmer air leads to a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain for east-central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and in the Twin Ports of Duluth and Superior.
•The Monday morning commute will be impacted by this wintry precipitation. Expect slippery roads, and in some parts of the area snow covered roads.
•Visibilities will be reduced to under a mile in areas that get snow late tonight into Monday morning.
Headlines for the Northland
-Winter Storm Warning for far northern Minnesota including the cities of International Falls and Ely from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM Monday.
-Winter Weather Advisory for north-central Minnesota from 6 PM this evening to Noon Monday.
-Winter Weather Advisory for the Iron Range and North Shore from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM Monday.
-Winter Weather Advisory for east-central Minnesota and all of northwest Wisconsin from 9 PM this evening to Noon Monday — Including the cities of Duluth and Superior.
18z NAM-Nest model 2-3-19
Pink and purple=Freezing rain and sleet
Snow, freezing rain and sleet is expected to develop and become more widespread across the Northland this evening and overnight. This precipitation should continue into Monday morning before tapering off from west to east Monday afternoon.
Goes-16 low level water vapor satellite loop from Sunday, February 3, 2019.
This storm that will impact the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through Monday is trying really hard to be a major storm, but it should fall short as things just don’t gel together perfectly to make this into a major winter storm. Regardless, expect travel impacts across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this evening through Monday morning with several inches of snow in northern Minnesota, with snow, sleet and freezing rain for east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
18z NAM-Nest model 2-3-19
East winds will increase near Lake Superior this evening, peaking in intensity overnight into early Monday morning when wind gusts of 20 to around 35 mph are expected. Winds will diminish by late Monday morning and will shift to the north-northwest.
Links to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map
Temperature departure map for the week of January 27 — Note: If you’re a fan of arctic air, you may wanna save the image below, not very often you see temperature departures of 15 to nearly 25 degrees below normal for a 7-day period!
Precipitation departure map for the week of January 27.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
January 27-February 2
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
*=Record daily low high temperature set
1/27: 2 F/-18 degrees below normal
1/28: 12 F/-8 degrees below normal
1/29: -5 F/-25 degrees below normal
*1/30: -14 F/-34 degrees below normal
1/31: -6 F/-26 degrees below normal
2/1: 15 F/-5 degrees below normal
2/2: 24 F/+3 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
1/27: -23 F/-25 degrees below normal
1/28: -5 F/-7 degrees below normal
1/29: -23 F/-25 degrees below normal
1/30: -30 F/-32 degrees below normal
1/31: -31 F/-33 degrees below normal
2/1: -10 F/-12 degrees below normal
2/2: 6 F/+4 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of January 27: -6.3 degrees (-17.2 degrees below normal) Source: https://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 0.12 inches
Normal: 0.18 inches
Departure: -0.06 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of January 27, 2019
Temperature: -9.4 degrees
Departure: -21.5 degrees below normal
Precipitation: 0.27 inches
Departure: +0.12 inches above normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Widespread low clouds, fog and freezing drizzle occurred over much of the area late last night and this morning with hoar frost coating trees and ice accumulations of up to a light glaze in some areas. This afternoon found generally overcast skies with lingering areas of fog, haze, drizzle and freezing drizzle. Highs today ranged from the teens in far western-northern sections of the Northland to the lower 30s in east-central Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin.
Note: I’m monitoring another system which could bring accumulating snow to parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin in the Tuesday night-Thursday time frame. More updates on this potential snow event on Monday.
Outlook for Duluth and Superior
•This Evening: Haze and fog with patchy freezing drizzle possible. Winds out of the east, increasing to 10 to 20 mph. Temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
•Overnight: Occasional sleet and snow. Some freezing rain also possible along with areas of fog. Gusty east winds 20 to 35 mph. Temperatures falling into the mid teens.
•Monday morning: Any mix precipitation becoming all snow. Gusty east winds 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures in the low to mid teens.
•Monday afternoon: Lingering flurries or light snow showers. Winds north-northwest 5 to 15 mph, gusts to 20 mph. Temperatures in the teens.
Note: Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Ice accumulation less than 0.05 inches.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 4
Sunrise Monday: 7:29 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 5:16 PM CST