Here’s my snowfall forecast for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Confidence level: Low to Medium.
At the moment it looks like there could be a swath of around 3 to 6 inches of snow affecting portions of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with around 1 to 3 inches north of that area.
There is some threat for lake enhanced snow near Lake Superior (head of the lake) with E-NE winds but with roughly 38% of Lake Superior now ice covered this could play a role in limiting the amount of lake enhanced snow we see Tuesday night.
Note: I’m thinking the Duluth area will get 1 to 3 inches of snow Tuesday night.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-4-19
Still getting some light snow and flurries across parts of the Northland late this afternoon, but this should come to an end this evening with mainly dry weather expected overnight through most of Tuesday, then we could see some snow build N-NE into the Northland later Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. Looks like a quick hitting snow event (if it occurs) with the snow coming to an end from SW-NE early Wednesday morning the way it looks now.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Monday, February 4, 2019.
This is quite the active weather pattern right now. Strong low pressure systems over the western U.S.; off the east coast, and over the Great Lakes today.
Note: The storm over the eastern Great Lakes produced half inch to nearly one inch of ice accumulation today over parts of Upper Michigan with reports of downed trees and power lines with some power outages in those areas today.
Did you miss these? Wind chills headlines return to parts of the Northland for late tonight into Tuesday morning with a Wind Chill Advisory for far northern/far northeastern Minnesota (light blue shaded area on map)
12z European computer model (ECMWF) 2-4-19
After Tuesday night’s snow event, another one appears to be setting up sometime during the Wednesday afternoon-Thursday time frame.
12z European Ensemble model (EPS) 2-4-19
The weather pattern looks active at times over the next two weeks, it also looks cold across the northern Rockies, northern Plains and upper Midwest.
Snowfall reports for February 3-4, 2019
Crane Lake, MN: 8.0 inch
Bigfork, MN: 7.5 inch
Wilkinson, MN: 5.0 inch
1 NW Kabetogama, MN: 5.0 inch
International Falls, MN: 4.7 inch
11 N Nashwauk, MN: 4.5 inch
1 WNW Cass Lake, MN: 4.1 inch
2 E Celina, MN: 4.0 inch
5 NW Walker, MN: 3.5 inch
4 N Amnicon Falls, WI: 2.7 inch
7 SSW Grand Rapids, MN: 2.4 inch
14 W Isabella, MN: 2.0 inch
2 ENE Holyoke, MN: 1.8 inch
2 W Iron Junction, MN: 1.3 inch
4 SSE Herbster, WI: 0.8 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 0.8 inch
Duluth Airport: 0.7 inch
Freezing Rain/Ice accumulation reports for February 3-4, 2019
4 NNW Sanborn, WI: 0.38 inch
Bennett, WI: 0.25 inch
Mercer, WI: 0.20 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 0.15 inch
Butternut, WI: 0.13 inch
Pine City, MN: 0.13 inch
Shell Lake, WI: 0.13 inch
Finlayson, MN: 0.13 inch
2 W Hayward, WI: 0.13 inch
Iron River, WI: 0.10 inch
Sandstone, MN: 0.06 inch
Heating Degree Day stats for January 2019
Note: HDD=Heating Degree Days
International Falls, Minnesota
Total HDD: 2001
Departure: +123 above normal
Total HDD: 1978
Departure: +169 above normal
Total HDD: 1843
Departure: +174 above normal
Total HDD: 1772
Departure: +73 above normal
Total HDD: 1640
Departure: +37 above normal
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A little dicey out there this morning with freezing rain, freezing drizzle and sleet causing very hazardous driving conditions over northwest Wisconsin, Twin Ports and east-central Minnesota. Snow also occurred late last night-this morning over northern Minnesota with several inches of accumulation. Some snow also fell farther south but with much less accumulation.
Low pressure responsible for the wintry precipitation today has moved into eastern Upper Michigan late this Monday afternoon, but a rather vigorous trough was moving into northern Minnesota this afternoon which has led to a flare up in some snow during the mid to late afternoon across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
A colder airmass overhead this afternoon with 850mb temps of -12 to -18C as strong cold air advection covered the upper Midwest behind the low over the eastern Great Lakes.
Very cold temperatures return tonight with lows in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero with a few locations up north possibly in the 20s below. Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies are expected with light snow and flurries ending this evening. Brisk N-NW winds will continue this evening which will lead to patchy blowing snow.
Partly to mostly cloudy on Tuesday. Snow is possible over southern portions of the area by mid or late afternoon, this snow could lift farther north/east Tuesday evening. Highs on Tuesday in the single digits to lower teens above zero.
Note: If we do get some snow late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night it has potential to be rather fluffy with snow ratios possibly in the 15:1 to around 20:1 range.
Looks like will get a break in the snow for a bit on Wednesday, but then the pattern reloads with another round of accumulating snow possible across the Northland Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 5
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:28 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 5:18 PM CST