12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-5-19
12z European ensemble model 2-5-19
12z European ensemble model 2-5-19
Our next snow making system (trough) moves out of the Rockies on Wednesday, deepens into a closed low once it reaches eastern Lake Superior or just north of Lake Superior during the Thursday night-Friday time frame.
Winter weather advisory (purple shaded area on map below)
Tonight: Winter weather advisory in effect until 6 AM Wednesday for southern Lake, Carlton and southern St. Louis Counties in northeast Minnesota.
Tonight: Winter weather advisory in effect until Midnight for Ashland, Iron and Sawyer Counties in northwest Wisconsin.
Tonight: Winter weather advisory in effect until 10 PM for Burnett and Washburn Counties in northwest Wisconsin.
Note: Winter weather advisory for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.
Link to Road Conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map
Here’s my updated snowfall forecast for tonight — Overall not too many changes from my map 24 hours ago.
•3 to 6 inches of snow possible over southern portions of northwest Wisconsin (Hayward Lakes area)
•Potential for around 4 inches or more of snow tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior where lake effect and lake enhanced snowfall should continue most of the night. Note: Not everyone along the North Shore will see significant amounts of snow tonight, it will depend where localized snow bands set up, and how long they remain over a location.
•On average, I’m still expecting 1 to 3 inches of snow in the Duluth area tonight, but some parts of the city could pick up well over 4 inches of snow by early Wednesday morning, just depends where lake effect snow bands set up tonight.
•Around 1 to 2 inches of snow farther north and west of the North Shore.
•Roads will be snow covered and slippery in parts of the Northland tonight and visibilities will be reduced to a mile or less at times due to the snow.
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Tuesday, February 5, 2019.
Tonight’s snow event continues to lift NE across the upper Midwest with Wednesday night-Thursday’s snow event churning over the western U.S this Tuesday afternoon.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-5-19
1) Snow tonight, ends from SW-NE early Wednesday morning.
2) Some light snow is possible Wednesday over western-northern areas.
3) Snow overspreads the entire area Wednesday night with snow continuing on Thursday. Expect a long duration light snow event during that aforementioned time period, but there will be bands of heavier snowfall which will be embedded in the widespread area of light snow.
4) Some lake effect or lake enhanced snow should continue along the North Shore of Lake Superior tonight, and again Wednesday night-Thursday morning with NE winds in place. During the day Wednesday there could be some lake effect flurries or light snow showers but with little accumulation. Winds will back to the N on Thursday which will shift the lake effect threat to the South Shore of Lake Superior.
Low Temperature reports from Tuesday morning, February 5, 2019
Cotton, MN: -24 F
2 E Celina, MN: -22 F
Kabetogama, MN: -21 F
Babbitt, MN: -20 F
Crane Lake, MN: -20 F
Bigfork, MN: -20 F
Embarrass, MN: -19 F
Cook, MN: -18 F
Walker, MN: -16 F
Cass Lake, MN: -16 F
Hibbing, MN: -15 F
Ely, MN: -15 F
Orr, MN: -15 F
3 E Wright, MN: -15 F
Grand Rapids, MN: -14 F
International Falls, MN: -11 F
Grand Marais Airport: -11 F
Aitkin, MN: -11 F
…Climate Data for February 4, 2019…
International Falls, Minnesota
Snowiest February 4 on record with 3.7 inches of snow on Monday. The previous record was 3.6 inches set in 2013.
Wettest February 4 on record with 0.33 inches of precipitation on Monday. The previous record was 0.31 inches set in 1962.
Weather Synopsis for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Skies were generally overcast across the area today with snow in two areas. One was near Lake Superior, mainly near the head of the lake where an E-NE wind combined with 850mb temps of -12 to -14C with lake water temps of around +1C helped in generating a plume of light to moderate lake effect snow showers this afternoon which extended from near Silver Bay, to Two Harbors and Duluth. Visibilities underneath the heaviest snow showers have been down to less than a mile for brief periods of time this afternoon with a quick half inch to one inch of accumulation. The other area of snow was over far southern portions of the Northland today as an upper level disturbance tracks northeast across the upper Midwest. Outside of the snow, it was a chilly day with highs ranging from the single digits to lower teens.
Note: Lake effect snowfall totals through 6 PM Tuesday include 2.5 inches, 3 miles northwest of French River, Minnesota, and 1.4 inches at the Duluth Airport.
•Tonight: Snow for much of the area, heaviest remaining over far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin, this area will be on the northern edge of the fast moving winter storm moving E-NE out of south-central Minnesota. Lows tonight in the single digits below to lower teens above zero.
•Wednesday: A brief break in the snow is expected for most areas during the day, but snow could spread into western portions of the area by the afternoon. Otherwise we’re looking at snow overspreading the entire Northland from SW-NE Wednesday night as another fast moving winter storm along with a potent mid/upper level trough ejects out of the Rockies. Highs on Wednesday in the teens and 20s (warmest temps in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
•Snow continues Thursday as a trough pivots through the upper Midwest while low pressure deepens as it lifts NE out of Missouri (pressure possibly falling to ~985mb by Friday morning!)
Note: Arctic air Friday and Saturday, moderates a bit late in the weekend. Watching two more potential snow events between February 9-12.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 6
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:27 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday: 5:19 PM CST