Here’s my snowfall forecast for this storm
•Looks like two areas with potential for greater than 6 inches of snow, one across portions of north-central Minnesota, the other from the North Shore into parts of northwest Wisconsin.
•Outside of those aforementioned areas, still a decent amount of snow is expected with 4 to 6 inches of accumulation.
•I’m bumping Duluth’s totals from 4 to 7 inches, to 6 to 9 inches.
Winter weather headlines map as of 3:30 PM Wednesday, February 6.
•Most of the Northland has been upgraded from a winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning. The only area that remains in an advisory is over the southwest portion of the area (Brainerd and Aitkin areas)
•The winter storm warning for Duluth and Superior is in effect from 9 PM tonight to Midnight Thursday night.
•Expect difficult driving conditions tonight and Thursday with snow covered and slippery roads along with poor visibilities due to falling and blowing snow. Both the Thursday morning and Thursday evening commutes will be impacted by this snow.
Link to road conditions
Wisconsin — https://511wi.gov/map
This will be a large winter storm with widespread winter weather headlines in effect through Thursday, including a blizzard warning in red and an ice storm warning in dark purple with winter storm warning in pink, and winter weather advisory in light purple.
12z WRF-NMM model 2-6-19
Here’s what one of the mesoscale models is showing for this winter storm
Pink colors=Icy mix
1) Snow will develop across the Northland this evening or during the Overnight.
2) Snow continues Thursday with bands of heavier snowfall lifting through parts of the area.
3) Snow tapers off from west to east Thursday night.
A real nice temperature gradient in place for this next storm with 850mb temps of -26C over the northern Rockies to +6C in north-central Illinois to +12C over the southern U.S. The real cold air over the northern Rockies and northern Plains will shift south/southeast, and eventually east as the trough lifts out of the upper Midwest by Friday.
Also of note is the potential for some severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes tonight over parts of the southern U.S. (Black outlined area on map)
Goes-16 water vapor satellite loop from Wednesday, February 6, 2019.
Strong mid/upper level trough over the Rockies this Wednesday afternoon will head into the upper Midwest on Thursday and will deepen as it does so.
Check this out! Always cool when thunderstorms occur during a winter storm, and this is the case in parts of southeast Minnesota early this Wednesday evening. Temperatures are right around 20 degrees with snow and mixed precip and flashes of lightning in the sky!
Radar loop ending at 5:15 PM Wednesday
Doesn’t look like much now, but the first wave of this storm is currently developing over southern Minnesota, this area of snow will lift N-NE through the evening, and more snow is expected to develop farther west and southwest, and that will be impacting the Northland on Thursday.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-6-19
A strong upper level trough over the Rockies today moves quickly to the E-NE through Friday, it will pass over the upper Midwest on Thursday. Once the trough exits to the east it will turn into a closed low north of Lake Superior. The approaching trough will bring with it some decent lift leading to our next snow event that will impact the Northland tonight and Thursday.
18z NAM model 2-6-19
Watch how the configuration of the trough changes as it moves from the Rockies this evening to the Great Lakes Thursday evening. The trough will deepen/sharpen as it moves over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday. The darker colors on the map indicate periods of stronger lift in the atmosphere resulting in heavier bands of snow as the trough pivots through the region on Thursday.
12z European ensemble model 2-6-19
Temperature anomaly forecast valid from late tonight through Sunday evening.
Watch how the frigid arctic air over the northern Rockies spills farther east by the end of the week and into the weekend behind Thursday’s storm — Greatest departures from normal represented by the purple and darker blue colors on map.
Snowfall Reports for February 5-6, 2019
Note: Totals listed below are through Wednesday morning.
3 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 9.0 inch
Rice Lake, MN: 9.0 inch
6 W Two Harbors, MN: 8.0 inch
7 NNW Two Harbors, MN: 8.0 inch
5 NE Rice Lake, MN: 8.0 inch
1 W Silver Bay, MN: 6.8 inch
1 E Silver Bay, MN: 6.0 inch
3 NNE Lester Park, MN: 5.8 inch
Duluth Airport: 5.1 inch
3 NNE Finland, MN: 4.0 inch
1 WNW Fredenberg, MN: 4.0 inch
14 W Isabella, MN: 4.0 inch
3 NNW Butternut, WI: 3.5 inch
1 SSW Grantsburg, WI: 3.0 inch
2 WNW Stone Lake, WI: 2.8 inch
3 SW Lester Park, MN: 2.8 inch
1 SE Two Harbors, MN: 2.5 inch
2 SW Bayfield, WI: 2.3 inch
6 NE Hertel, WI: 2.1 inch
6 SW Webb Lake, WI: 2.1 inch
3 NW Aurora, MN: 2.0 inch
Ely, MN: 2.0 inch
11 N Nashwauk, MN: 2.0 inch
2 ESE Duluth, MN: 2.0 inch
Grand Marais, MN: 2.0 inch
3 WSW Lutsen, MN: 1.9 inch
Hovland, MN: 1.6 inch
4 W Grand Marais, MN: 1.5 inch
Cook, MN: 1.4 inch
Ashland, WI: 1.2 inch
1 WSW Maple, WI: 1.0 inch
1 SW Brainerd, MN: 1.0 inch
Wrenshall, MN: 0.8 inch
7 ESE Superior, WI: 0.8 inch
…Climate Data for February 5, 2019…
3rd snowiest February 5 on record with 3.5 inches of snow on Tuesday. Snowiest February 5 on record is 6.0 inches set in 1908.
Outlook for Duluth and Superior
Tonight: Breezy. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, gusts to around 30 mph. Patchy freezing drizzle possible through the night. Snow flurries early with snow developing between 7-10 PM. Areas of blowing snow. Lows in the low to mid teens.
Thursday: Light snow with periods of heavier snow. Breezy with some blowing snow. Wind northeast 10 to 20 mph, gusts to around 30 mph. Wind shifting to the north during the afternoon. Highs in the mid teens.
Note: Total snowfall accumulations of 6 to 9 inches are possible in the Twin Ports by Thursday evening.
-Frigid temperatures return Thursday night with lows across the Northland in the single digits, teens to around 20 below zero. Highs on Friday in the single digits below to single digits above zero. Note: Wind chill headlines may be needed for parts of the area Thursday night/Friday morning, and again Friday night.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 7
Sunrise Thursday: 7:25 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 5:21 PM CST