21z RAP model 2-8-19
•Wind chill advisory for all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through 10 AM Saturday.
•Wind chills as low as 35 below zero.
•Frostbite on exposed skin is as little as 10 minutes.
18z NAM-WRF model 2-8-19
1) An area of light snow is possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening over portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota, and northwest Wisconsin. Snowfall totals from a half inch to around 2 inches are possible.
2) A more organized area of snow is possible on Sunday extending from southern to eastern Minnesota into much of Wisconsin. Computer models are not in the best agreement with Sunday’s system with a few of the models showing little to no snow, while others are much snowier. At the moment it looks like most of Sunday’s snow would stay south of Duluth.
3) Another thing to keep an eye on will be if any lake effect snow can develop near Lake Superior including in the Twin Ports Saturday night into Sunday with winds becoming east to northeast while the airmass remains very cold with 850mb temps of around -15 to -18C. Ice coverage on Lake Superior is up over 50% as of February 8, so this may play a role in keeping lake effect snow from developing this weekend.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-8-19
Watching model trends for a potential winter storm which could impact parts of the Northland next Tuesday-early Wednesday.
Note: One thing to watch will be the position of the ridge to our northeast, if that ends up being stronger and or sets up a little more to the west, than that could force the trough and area of low pressure on a more southerly track, which would keep most of the snow south of the Northland.
12z European ensemble model (EPS) 2-8-19
Much of the Northland has snow depths in the 20 to 30 inch range as of Friday morning, February 8. A few locations in northeast Minnesota have snow depths greater than 30 inches, and Kabetogama which is roughly 28 miles southeast of International Falls has a snow depth of around 40 inches, wow!
Snow depths from around the Northland as of Friday, February 8, 2019
Kabetogama, MN: 39″
Wolfridge, MN (ELC) 38″
Babbitt, MN: 31″
Embarrass, MN: 28″
Grand Portage, MN: 28″
Cass Lake, MN: 27″
2 E Celina, MN: 26″
10 W Gunflint Lake, MN: 26″
Duluth, MN: 25″
Cotton, MN: 25″
8.8 N Bayfield, WI: 25″
International Falls, MN: 24″
12 N Grand Rapids, MN: 23″
4.4 W Grand Marais, MN: 23″
2 E Poplar, WI: 22″
4 W Clam Lake, WI: 20″
3 E Wright, MN: 15″
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
•4-day snowfall total of 15.4 inches (Feb 4-7)
•We’ve already passed what our average snowfall is for the month of February in just the first 8 days of this month with 15.4 inches of snow so far. The average February snowfall is 12.4 inches. Note: If we don’t get anymore snow the rest of this month, it would still finish above normal in the snowfall department.
…Climate Data for February 7, 2019…
New record daily snowfall set for February 7 with 7.9 inches of snow on Thursday. The previous record snowiest February 7 was 4.0 inches set in 2017.
3rd wettest February 7 on record with 0.29 inches of precipitation on Thursday. The wettest February 7 on record is 0.71 inches set in 1937.
Record daily snowfall tied for February 7 with 8.0 inches of snow on Thursday. This ties with February 7, 1937 for snowiest February 7 on record.
New record daily snowfall set for February 7 with 5.0 inches of snow on Thursday. The previous record snowiest February 7 was 0.5 inches set in 1969.
New record daily precipitation record set for February 7 with 0.35 inches of precipitation on Thursday. The previous record wettest February 7 was 0.05 inches set in 2017.
International Falls, Minnesota
2nd snowiest February 7 on record with 3.0 inches of snow on Thursday. The snowiest February 7 on record is 3.9 inches set in 2017.
2nd wettest February 7 on record with 0.20 inches of precipitation on Thursday. The wettest February 7 on record is 0.21 inches set in 2017.
3rd wettest February 7 on record with 0.10 inches of precipitation on Thursday. The wettest February 7 on record is 0.47 inches set in 1937.
*Outlook for Duluth and Superior
…Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM Saturday…
Tonight: Mostly clear and frigid. Low 17 below to 22 below. Wind west to northwest less than 10 mph. Dangerously cold wind chills to 35 below.
Saturday: Increasing cloudiness. Some light snow is possible later in the day into the evening with snowfall accumulations of around an inch possible. Cold. High 5 to 10 above. Wind variable around 10 mph. Morning wind chills as low as 35 below.
Note: Another snow event is possible on Sunday, however, this should remain mostly south of the Twin Ports the way it looks now. Winds will be out of the east-northeast which is a favorable wind direction to get lake effect snow in Duluth, so this will be something to watch for Sunday and Sunday night.
Duluth, Minnesota Climate Normals for February 9
Sunrise Saturday: 7:22 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 5:24 PM CST